Vaprus vs Kuressaare: match statistics
Vaprus vs Kuressaare: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Vaprus played against Kuressaare in Meistriliiga (Estonia). The game was played on June 26, 2026. Venue: Pärnu Rannastaadion. Final score: 1:0.
Recent form
Vaprus has 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses over its last five games, averaging 1.40 points per game. Kuressaare has 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss, with 1.60 points per game.
Scoring records
Vaprus scores 1.25 goals per game and allows 1.94. Kuressaare scores 1.06 and allows 1.63. Games in this league average 3.05 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 63% of Vaprus's games and 56% of Kuressaare's. The Over 2.5 rates are 63% and 56%, compared with league averages of 55% for BTTS and 64% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Kuressaare has the higher season xG average, 1.39 to 1.09 per game. Vaprus takes 7.9 shots per game, while Kuressaare takes 11.2.
First-half and second-half trends
Vaprus leads at halftime in 19% of its games and scores 0.63 goals per game after halftime. Kuressaare leads at halftime in 19% and scores 0.69 after halftime.
When the teams score
Vaprus's most productive scoring window is minutes 46-60 (5 goals). For Kuressaare, it is minutes 61-75 (5 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Meistriliiga games average 3.05 goals. Both teams score in 55% of games, and 64% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, 5 previous meetings were available. The record was 2 home wins, 0 draws and 3 away wins. Those games averaged 1.80 goals, with both teams scoring in 40% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Vaprus holds an advantage in finishing efficiency: the home conversion rate is 16% versus 8% for Kuressaare, translating into an average of 1.5 goals per game for Vaprus versus 1.0 for the visitors. Kuressaare attempts more shots (12.13 per game vs 9.38), but records fewer shots on target (3.38 vs 3.88) and underperforms their xG — visitors have an average xG of 1.45 but score only 1.0, while Vaprus posts xG 1.26 and converts 1.5. Defensively Kuressaare is weaker in expected goals conceded: xG against for the visitors is 2.21 versus 1.72 for Vaprus, and on the road they have not kept a single clean sheet (0% vs 25% for the hosts). Over the last 5 matches form is comparable — Vaprus 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses (1.4 points per game), Kuressaare 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss (1.6 points per game) — however Vaprus’s superior efficiency and lower share of scoreless games (25% vs 38%) give the hosts the edge. Considering also league position (Vaprus 6th vs Kuressaare 9th), I tip the home win and assess probabilities at 55% for Vaprus, 25% for a draw and 20% for Kuressaare.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Both teams have seasonal BTTS rates of 50% (Vaprus) and 63% (Kuressaare) versus a league average of 55%, indicating a moderate probability of Goal/Goal. In the last 5 matches Vaprus recorded BTTS in 80% and Kuressaare in 60% — their short-term average is 70%, clearly above season values. Offensive and defensive metrics support this trend: xG against is 1.92 (Vaprus) and 2.21 (Kuressaare), average shots 10.5 vs 12.13 and shots on target 4.13 vs 3.38, showing many chances created and conceded. Clean sheet expected occurrences are rare (Vaprus 13%, Kuressaare 0%), and over the last 5 matches Vaprus conceded on average 2.0 goals and Kuressaare 1.2, which further increases the chance of both teams scoring. Based on these figures I estimate BTTS - Yes probability at about 70% vs 30% and therefore recommend a 'yes' bet.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The combined xG of both teams is 2.80 (Vaprus xG_for 1.35 vs Kuressaare xG_for 1.45), yielding an expected 2.80 goals for the match. With λ = 2.80 the Poisson model gives roughly a 77% probability of Over 1.5 goals, about 53% for Over 2.5 and around 31% for Over 3.5, so the strongest signal is for the lower line. The league averages 3.05 goals per game, Vaprus has 50% of matches Over 2.5 this season (last 5: 80%), and Kuressaare 63% season-to-date, which further boosts the probability of the over. Both teams show poor defensive metrics (Vaprus concedes 1.38 goals, xG against 1.92; Kuressaare concedes 1.88 goals, xG against 2.21) and combined shot volumes of 10.5 and 12.13 with conversion rates of 11% vs 8%, so I expect goals from both sides and recommend Over 1.5 as the most likely and least risky option.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The most likely scenario is 1/1 (Vaprus leads at the break and wins), which I assign 36%. Vaprus led at the break in 3 of 8 matches (38%), while Kuressaare never led at the break (0%) and were trailing at the break in 5 of 8 fixtures (63%). Hosts average 0.63 goals by half-time versus 0.13 for the visitors, with 12 points gained by half-time (1.5 pts per game) compared to 3 points (0.38 pts) for Kuressaare, and 75% of Vaprus matches feature a clean sheet HT versus 25% for Kuressaare, all strongly favoring a lead at the break. Over the full match Vaprus average 1.13 goals scored and concede 1.38, while Kuressaare score 1.0 and concede 1.88; additionally xG shows 1.35 vs 1.45 in attack and 1.92 vs 2.21 in defense, suggesting a weaker away defense and higher chances for the hosts to hold on to the win. As a result 1/1 receives the highest weight (36%), with other significant scenarios being X/1 15% (draw HT and home win) and 1/X 10% (lead HT and draw FT).
View first-half and second-half statisticsStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Vaprus | Kuressaare | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 42% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.38 | 0.28 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Kuressaare is 14% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / game - Vaprus · 1.6 pts / game - Kuressaare
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Vaprus is 18% better for: goals scored per game.
1.25 goals / game - Vaprus · 1.06 goals / game - Kuressaare
Kuressaare is 19% better for: goals allowed per game.
1.94 goals / game - Vaprus · 1.63 goals / game - Kuressaare
Vaprus scores in 75% of games (12 of 16 meczów), while Kuressaare keeps a clean sheet in 6% (1 of 16 meczów).
Kuressaare scores in 56% of games (9 of 16 meczów), while Vaprus keeps a clean sheet in 25% (4 of 16 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Vaprus
Over / Under - Kuressaare
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Vaprus is 27% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.19 pts / game - Vaprus · 0.94 pts / game - Kuressaare
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Vaprus - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 19% of games and wins 38%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.6 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
Kuressaare - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 19% of games and wins 31%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.4 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Goals allowed / game | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Average goals per game | 2.0 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 20% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals per game | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 60% |
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (5 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (5 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Vaprus
Kuressaare
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Meistriliiga).
Teams vs league
| Vaprus | Liga | Kuressaare | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▲ 3.19 | 3.05 | ▼ 2.69 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 63% | 55% | • 56% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 63% | 64% | ▼ 56% |
| Clean sheets | • 25% | 24% | ▼ 6% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 63% | 72% | ▼ 69% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 88% | 90% | ▲ 94% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
- VaprusYellow cardHendrik Vainu
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Record from Vaprus's perspective: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses against Kuressaare. Games average 1.80 goals, and both teams scored in 40% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Vaprus vs Kuressaare?
The Meistriliiga match finished Vaprus 1:0 Kuressaare. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Vaprus and Kuressaare?
In the last 5 head-to-head matches Vaprus won 2, Kuressaare won 3 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 1.80 goals, with both teams scoring in 40% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Vaprus vs Kuressaare?
Vaprus score 1.25 goals per game on average and Kuressaare 1.06. The Meistriliiga average is 3.05 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 64% of games. Both teams score in 63% of Vaprus's matches and 56% of Kuressaare's.
What form are Vaprus and Kuressaare in?
Over the last 5 games Vaprus have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Kuressaare 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Vaprus vs Kuressaare?
The statistical background for Vaprus vs Kuressaare — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.