Vaprus vs Nõmme United: match statistics
Vaprus vs Nõmme United: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Vaprus play Nõmme United in Meistriliiga (Estonia). The match date is 2 May 2026 at 16:00. Final score: 2:3.
Current form
Vaprus: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match. Nõmme United: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Vaprus scores 1.40 and concedes 1.90 goals per match. Nõmme United scores 1.95 and concedes 2.30. League average: 3.11 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Vaprus 65%, Nõmme United 90%. Over 2.5: Vaprus 65%, Nõmme United 95%. League level: BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 66%.
xG, shots and style
Nõmme United has higher xG: 1.50 vs 1.14. Vaprus: 8.4 shots per match, Nõmme United: 11.9.
Match halves
Vaprus: half-time lead 25%, second-half goals 0.65. Nõmme United: half-time lead 25%, second-half goals 1.20.
Goals by minute
Vaprus: 16-30 (6 goals). Nõmme United: 76-90+ (10 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Meistriliiga: 3.11 goals per match, BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 66%.
Head-to-head
1 H2H matches: 0-0-1. Average goals 8.00, BTTS 100%.
Match description
I back '1' — Vaprus to win. The home side average 1.00 goals scored and concede 1.33 per match, with average xG for 1.25 and xG against 1.69, indicating superiority in the quality of created chances and a more stable defense. Nõmme United away average only 0.75 goals scored and as many as 3.5 conceded per match, have 0% away wins and 75% away losses, and their xG against on the road is 2.17, which markedly weakens their prospects. Vaprus in the last 5 matches have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses and 1.4 points per game, while Nõmme in their last 5 have 2 wins and 3 losses and 1.2 points per game; the hosts also register more shots (9.33 vs 7.75) and more on target (3.33 vs 3.00). Given the superior defensive metrics of the home team and Nõmme’s catastrophic away figures, I give a clear advantage to Vaprus.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Vaprus | Nõmme United | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 42% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.39 | 0.48 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Nõmme United is 50% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - Vaprus · 1.8 pts / match - Nõmme United
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Nõmme United is 39% better for: goals scored per match.
1.4 goals / match - Vaprus · 1.95 goals / match - Nõmme United
Vaprus is 21% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.9 goals / match - Vaprus · 2.3 goals / match - Nõmme United
Vaprus scores in 80% of matches (16 of 20 matches), while Nõmme United keeps a clean sheet in 0% (0 of 20 matches).
Nõmme United scores in 90% of matches (18 of 20 matches), while Vaprus keeps a clean sheet in 25% (5 of 20 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Vaprus
Over / Under — Nõmme United
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Vaprus is 25% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.25 pts / match - Vaprus · 1 pts / match - Nõmme United
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Vaprus - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 25% of matches and wins 40%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Nõmme United - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 25% of matches and wins 40%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 80% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 40% |
| No goal | 20% | 60% |
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -3 | +4 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (6 goli). Concedes most in 61-75 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (10 goli). Concedes most in 76-90 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Vaprus
Nõmme United
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Meistriliiga).
Teams vs league
| Vaprus | Liga | Nõmme United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.30 | 3.11 | ▲ 4.25 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 65% | 58% | ▲ 90% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 65% | 66% | ▲ 95% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 25% | 23% | ▼ 0% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 70% | 74% | ▲ 95% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 85% | 88% | ▲ 95% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Vaprus 0 - 0 - 1 Nõmme United. Average goals 8.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Vaprus vs Nõmme United?
The Meistriliiga match finished Vaprus 2:3 Nõmme United. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Vaprus vs Nõmme United?
Vaprus score 1.40 goals per game on average and Nõmme United 1.95. The Meistriliiga average is 3.11 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 66% of games. Both teams score in 65% of Vaprus's matches and 90% of Nõmme United's.
What form are Vaprus and Nõmme United in?
Over the last 5 games Vaprus have a 2-0-3 record (1.20 points per game) and Nõmme United 3-0-2 (1.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Vaprus vs Nõmme United?
The statistical background for Vaprus vs Nõmme United — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.