Varaždin vs Slaven Koprivnica: match statistics

Varaždin (4th) scores on average 1.43 goals at home with xG 1.56 and 13.79 shots per game, 4.14 on target; Slaven Koprivnica (6th) away averages 1.21 goals, xG 1.19, 9.64 shots and 3.07 on target. Defensively the hosts concede 1.36 goals per home match and keep 29% clean sheets, while the visitors concede 1.93 goals away and have only 7% clean sheets. In the last 5 matches Slaven has won 2 games and averages 1.4 points per match, Varaždin has won 1 and averages 1.0 point per match, giving a slight form edge to the visitors. However, Slaven fail to score in 29% of away games, and their higher conversion rate 13% versus the home 10% does not offset the lower number of shots on target (3.07 vs 4.14) and the lower xG (1.19 vs 1.56). Considering superior chance creation (xG 1.56 vs 1.19), more shots on target and a significantly better clean sheet rate for the hosts (29% vs 7%), I give Varaždin the higher probability of victory.

Seasonal indicators strongly favor BTTS: Varaždin have BTTS in 57% of matches, while Slaven in 71%, versus a league average of 56%. This is supported by the goal profile: the home side score 1.43 and concede 1.21 on average, the visitors score 1.21 and concede 1.93, meaning both teams regularly both score and concede. In terms of created xG value the home xG is 1.67 against 1.78 xG vs Slaven, while Slaven’s xG is 1.19 with 1.25 xG against Varaždin; additionally Varaždin register on average 4.5 shots on target versus Slaven’s 3.07, which increases the likelihood of scoring opportunities from both sides. Clean sheets are rare: Varaždin keep a clean sheet in 29% of matches, Slaven only 7%, so the chance that both teams keep it goalless is low. Although in the last 5 matches BTTS occurred for Varaždin in 80% and for Slaven in only 20%, the weight of seasonal stats (57% and 71%), the goals averages and Slaven’s defensive vulnerability (conceding 1.93 on average) lead me to select BTTS - Yes with a 75% probability.

I model expected goals as the average of the home team’s offensive xG and the opponent’s defensive xG: Varaždin has xG_for 1.67 and Slaven xG_against 1.78, yielding about 1.73 goals for the home side; Slaven has xG_for 1.19 and Varaždin xG_against 1.25, yielding 1.22 for the away side, totaling 2.95. Seasonal metrics support the over: percentage of matches with over 1.5 goals is 79% for Varaždin and 93% for Slaven, while for the 2.5 line it’s 50% and 64%, and for 3.5 only 21% and 43% — so the strongest signal is for 1.5. Additionally, the home side averages 14.5 shots and 4.5 on target, the visitors 9.64 shots and 3.07 on target, with shooting accuracy 10% vs 13%, which shows both teams create chances and can convert them into goals. BTTS occurs seasonally in 57% of Varaždin’s matches and 71% of Slaven’s (in the last 5 matches Varaždin had 80% BTTS, Slaven 20%), indicating variability but an overall tendency toward both teams scoring. From the above data I pick Over 1.5 (the strongest signal): a Poisson model with total xG 2.95 gives about a 79% probability of Over 1.5, while Over 2.5 is ~57% and Over 3.5 only ~34%.

I project a Half-Time/Full-Time scenario of a draw at the break followed by a home win (X/1), because Varaždin has a clear seasonal advantage: 50% wins versus Slaven’s 14% and 1.71 points per home match compared to 0.86 points for the visitors. I expect a draw at half-time — the home side averages 0.57 goals by half-time (scoredAVGHT_home=0.57), while Slaven’s seasonal average is 0.64; however, in the last five matches Slaven have 0.0 first-half goals versus 0.8 for Varaždin (last5_scoredAVGHT_overall_away=0.0 vs last5_scoredAVGHT_overall_home=0.8). After the break the hosts improve — they score on average 0.86 goals in the second half (scored_2hg_avg_home=0.86), while the visitors concede 1.29 on average in second halves (conceded_2hg_avg_away=1.29) and as many as 10 goals in the 76–90 minute interval (goals_conceded_min_76_to_90_away=10), which favors a turnaround. xG and chance metrics also support Varaždin: xG 1.67 versus 1.19 for the away side and 14.5 shots with 4.5 on target versus 9.64 and 3.07 for Slaven, increasing the likelihood of a home victory after the break. Therefore I assign the X/1 scenario the highest probability (34%), with alternatives 1/1 (22%) and draw/draw (18%).