Varzim vs Vianense: match statistics

Varzim sit 1st, having won 4 of their last 5 matches and scored 12 goals during that period, while Vianense have only 2 wins in their last five games. However, the hosts’ home numbers are mixed: they score an average of 1 goal and have lost half of their two home matches played. Vianense’s biggest problem is their away form, having failed to win a single match, scored no goals and produced an average of just 0.64 xG from 4 shots per game. Varzim create more chances at home than their opponents, with an average xG of 0.87 compared to 0.64, while also averaging 6 shots to Vianense’s 4. The visitors can limit their losses, keeping a clean sheet in 50% of away matches, so a draw remains a realistic outcome. However, the hosts’ superior current form and Vianense’s attacking weakness favor Varzim.

The strongest signal in favor of BTTS - No comes from Vianense’s away form to date: the team has yet to score an away goal, while its average xG is just 0.64. The visitors have scored in 0% of such matches, while keeping a clean sheet in 50%, and BTTS has occurred in none of their away games. Varzim concede an average of just 1.0 goal at home, have kept a clean sheet in 50% of matches, and allow opponents an average of 1.0 xG, further limiting the prospect of an away goal. The hosts should create more chances, as they average 4 shots on target compared with Vianense’s 1, while the visitors’ defense allows 1.48 xG. Although both teams have scored 2.4 goals per match across their last five games, the league’s low seasonal BTTS rate of 43%, combined with Vianense’s very poor away attack, provides stronger support for a scenario in which at least one team fails to score.

Varzim averages 2.0 goals at home, but its average xG is only 1.06, suggesting that part of its current finishing efficiency may be difficult to sustain. Vianense have yet to score away from home, create just 0.64 xG and average only 1 shot on target per match, while Varzim keep a clean sheet in 50% of their home games. All of Vianense’s away matches have finished below 2.5 goals, and none has gone above the 3.5-goal line. Although the teams have each scored 2.4 goals per game across their last five matches, they have also conceded only 0.8 goals per match. The projected total of 2.00 goals points to a clear edge for Under 3.5, particularly given the visitors’ very limited attacking potential away from home.

At home, Varzim score an average of 2.0 goals and win 50% of their matches, while Vianense have yet to score away from home, have not won any match, and have been losing in 50% of their away appearances. The strongest signal concerns the first half: the hosts led at the break in 2 of their 2 home matches, scoring an average of 1.0 goal and conceding none, while the visitors drew 0–0 in both away games and failed to register a shot on target. Varzim’s advantage is also evident in chance creation: their average xG stands at 1.06 compared with Vianense’s 0.64, while shots on target stand at 4.0 to 1.0. After the break, the hosts continue to score an average of 1.0 goal, whereas the visitors remain goalless both before and after half-time in the available away data. The scenario of Varzim leading at the break and maintaining their winning position is therefore the most likely, although the limited seasonal sample calls for a moderate level of confidence.