Vasas vs Győri ETO: match statistics

The away side appear to be the favorites — Győri ETO sit 3rd in the table while Vasas are 9th. In their last 5 matches Győri have scored 13 goals (2.6 per game) and conceded 5 (1.0 per game), whereas Vasas have 8 goals (1.6 per game) and 8 conceded (1.6 per game). That gives the visitors a +1.0 advantage in scoring average and they concede 0.6 fewer goals on average. Over the last 5 fixtures Győri’s form is 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss (wwldw) and Vasas 3 wins, 2 losses (lwwlw); points per game in this period are 2.0 for the visitors and 1.8 for the hosts. The goal difference (13 vs 8, i.e. +5 for the visitors) and superior defensive record (5 conceded vs 8, i.e. −3) indicate Győri are more likely to finish attacks with goals and have a higher probability of winning. Based on this I predict an away win and assign them a significantly higher probability.

Analysis of the last 5 matches shows the home side had BTTS in 60% of games and the away side in 40%, providing a moderate signal for both teams to score. In those 5 matches the home team averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded (total 8 scored and 8 conceded), while the away team averaged 2.6 goals scored and 1.0 conceded (total 13 scored and 5 conceded), so the away team is clearly stronger in attack. xG confirms the attacking potential: home xG is 1.93 versus xG against the away team 1.31 (difference +0.62), and away xG is 1.51 versus xG against the home team 1.46 (difference +0.05), which suggests both teams are generating scoring opportunities. Forms 'lwwlw' (home) and 'wwldw' (away) and the away team’s superior goal tally over the last 5 matches (13 vs 8) further increase the probability of goals from both sides. On this basis I tip BTTS - Yes at 70% and BTTS - No at 30%, because the away team’s offensive strength (2.6 vs 1.6) and the home team’s average 1.6 conceded provide a stronger signal for both teams to score.

In the last 5 matches Vasas scored 8 goals (avg 1.6) and Győri ETO 13 goals (avg 2.6), conceding 8 and 5 goals respectively. The sum of recent xG for both teams is 1.93 (Vasas) + 1.51 (Győri) = 3.44, while xG against are 1.46 (Vasas) and 1.31 (Győri). Averaging attack and defense yields expected goals of 1.62 for the home side and 1.49 for the visitors, total 3.11, which clearly places the match above the 1.5 line and substantially above 2.5. This is supported by the fact that Over 2.5 goals occurred in 60% of recent matches for both teams, and BTTS is 60% for Vasas and 40% for Győri, increasing the likelihood of goals from both sides. The strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5 goals (high probability 92%), therefore I recommend backing Over 1.5 as the most reliable line.

First-half statistics clearly favor the visitors: Győri led at the break in 4 of their last 5 matches (80%) and average 1.6 goals in the first half versus 0.8 for Vasas — across those five matches that is 10 HT goals for the visitors versus 5 for the hosts. Over the full match Győri average 2.6 goals per game compared to 1.6 for Vasas (2.6 vs 1.6) and concede on average 1.0 goal per game versus 1.6 conceded by Vasas (1.0 vs 1.6), indicating superiority in both attack and defense. The visitors have won 3 of their last 5 matches (60%) and have a higher half-time points rate (HTPPG 2.6 vs 1.8), while Vasas were level at the break in 60% of cases, which increases the likelihood that the opponent will be leading at the interval. Considering Győri’s 80% rate of leading at the break, higher first-half goal average (1.6 vs 0.8) and the 2.6 vs 1.6 goals-per-game advantage, the most consistent scenario is Győri leading at half-time and the visitors winning after the match (HT/FT 2/2).