Vegalta Sendai vs Consadole Sapporo: match statistics

Vegalta Sendai sit 4th, while Consadole Sapporo are only 17th, with the teams’ season records standing at 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat for the hosts versus 1 win and 4 defeats for the visitors. Sendai have won 3 of their last 5 matches, scoring 10 goals in the process, whereas Sapporo have suffered 4 defeats, conceding as many as 13 goals while scoring just 5. At home, the hosts create significantly more danger: they average 17.5 shots and 8 shots on target per match, with an xG of 2.11, while Sapporo’s away xG is just 1.17. The visitors’ away defense concedes an average of 2 goals and have yet to keep a clean sheet, with all of their away matches ending in defeat. Vegalta also allow opponents to create chances, but with an xG against of 1.04 and an average of 2 goals scored at home, they have clear arguments in favor of a win.

The signal for both teams to score is clear: BTTS occurred in 67% of Vegalta Sendai’s matches and in as many as 100% of Consadole Sapporo’s games, compared with the league average of 44%. The visitors have yet to keep a clean sheet, conceding an average of 2.00 goals per match, while in their last five fixtures their defense allowed opponents 2.60 goals on average. Vegalta scored an average of 2.00 goals in their last five matches, with an xG of 1.86, so they should be able to exploit Sapporo’s defensive weaknesses. Sapporo averages 1.00 goal per game, and despite their strong recent run, the hosts have still conceded in 4 of their 6 matches so far, keeping the visitors’ scoring chances alive. Therefore, the most likely scenario is BTTS - Yes, with both teams finding the net.

Vegalta Sendai have averaged 2.0 goals scored over their last five matches, while Consadole Sapporo have conceded as many as 2.6 goals per game over the same period. The hosts are also creating plenty of chances: their average xG across their last five outings is 1.86, while the visitors’ defense has allowed an average of 1.26 xG. At least 2 goals have been scored in all previous matches involving both teams, while the Over 2.5 line has landed in 60% of Sendai’s recent matches and 80% of Sapporo’s. The visitors have conceded in every match this season, while both teams scored in 100% of Sapporo’s matches, further supporting a goals-based scenario. The strongest pick is Over 1.5, as the projected total of 3.03 goals provides a clear margin above this line.

Vegalta Sendai have been clearly superior over their last five matches, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while winning 60% of their games. By contrast, Consadole Sapporo have lost 80% of their matches and conceded an average of 2.6 goals. The hosts have been particularly strong starters, leading at the break in 60% of their games in this sample, with an average of 1.4 first-half goals compared with 0.4 for the visitors. Sendai’s advantage is also evident in the quality of chances created: their average xG is 1.76 from 15.67 shots per match, while Sapporo record an xG of 1.17 and just 9.0 shots. The visitors’ seasonal data shows an unbroken losing record, while their defense allows an average of 2.0 goals conceded, making a Vegalta lead at half-time followed by a victory at full-time the most likely outcome. The main risk is the hosts’ high vulnerability to conceding, as they average 2.67 goals allowed per match over the season; however, current form and Sapporo’s defensive weakness provide stronger support for the 1/1 scenario.