Vejle vs Fredericia: match statistics

I predict a draw because Fredericia has the better run over the last 5 matches: 0 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss (0.8 points per match), while Vejle in the same period has 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses (0.2 points per match). The visitors’ attack looks more efficient — Fredericia scored 9 goals in the last 5 fixtures and averages 1.67 goals away, whereas Vejle scored 4 goals and averages 1.33 goals at home. Home defense and xG metrics balance the chances: Vejle has home xG for 1.46 and xG against 1.42 and concedes on average 1.73 goals per match, while Fredericia allows 2.32 xG away and concedes 2.2 goals per match. Fredericia is also more clinical in finishing (conversion 16% versus Vejle’s 11%), but the visitors’ low clean sheet rate (7% vs 13% for the hosts) points to an open, goalful game, hence the highest probability is a shared point in a draw.

Both teams show indicators supporting BTTS: Vejle has a season BTTS rate of 53% and averages 1.07 goals scored per match, while Fredericia is at 73% and 1.67 goals; the combined average is 63% versus the league level of 60%. Over the last 5 fixtures BTTS occurred in 60% of Vejle’s matches and 80% of Fredericia’s, i.e. a 70% average, indicating an increased frequency of mutual scoring in current form. Both sides have weak defenses: Vejle concedes 2.13 goals on average this season and 2.4 in the last 5, Fredericia concedes 2.2 this season and 2.2 in the last 5; additionally clean sheet percentage is only 7% for both teams, which reduces the likelihood of a No Goal outcome. Offensively Fredericia is more efficient (16% shot conversion vs 8% for Vejle); in the last 5 matches they scored 9 goals vs Vejle’s 4, and the home side—despite a lower goals average (1.07 season, 0.8 last 5)—creates 13.07 shots and xG 1.47 season-to-date, so home goals are also likely. Considering the season 63%, recent 70%, league 60% and the high goals conceded figures combined with low clean sheets, I assign 78% to BTTS - Yes and 22% to BTTS - No.

The strongest signal is Over 1.5: both teams have 93% of matches with more than 1.5 goals this season (Vejle 93%, Fredericia 93%), and none of their matches were goalless (Over 0.5 = 100%), so I rate Over 1.5 at 93%. Based on xG: Vejle has xG_for 1.47, Fredericia xG_against 2.32 — the average gives 1.90 expected home goals; Fredericia has xG_for 1.23 and Vejle xG_against 1.90 — 1.57 expected away goals, total 3.47 xG for the match. This aligns with Over 2.5 stats: Fredericia finished the season with 87% of matches over 2.5, Vejle 60%, and in the last 5 matches of both teams Over 2.5 occurred in 80%, hence I assign Over 2.5 about a 75% probability. Additionally, both teams concede a lot (Vejle averages 2.13 goals conceded per match, Fredericia 2.20; in the last 5 matches 2.4 and 2.2 respectively) and the percentage of matches where both teams scored is 53% for Vejle and 73% for Fredericia, which increases the chance of goals from both sides. In summary, the strongest and safest pick is Over 1.5 (93%); Over 2.5 is a reasonable, more aggressive option (75%), while Over 3.5 is balanced and does not provide as clear a signal (approx. 48%).

Fredericia clearly dominates before the break — they average 0.93 goals by half-time (2.4 per match in the last 5), while Vejle average 0.53 (last 5: 0.8), suggesting the visitors have the first-half edge. The hosts generate higher xG (1.47 vs Fredericia’s 1.23), but the visitors are significantly more efficient in conversion (16% vs 8%) and led at the break in 33% of matches compared to 13% for Vejle. Over the full match Fredericia score 1.67 goals on average and record 1.2 points per game, while Vejle have 1.07 goals and 0.87 points; the win rate is 33% for the visitors vs 20% for the hosts, making the away side the favorite. Both teams concede a lot (Vejle 2.13 goals conceded per game, Fredericia 2.20) and seasonally 73% of Vejle’s matches and 93% of Fredericia’s matches had at least one goal by half-time, so I expect goals from both sides, with an advantage to the visitors. On that basis the most likely scenario is the visitors leading at half-time and winning the match (2/2 — 34%); alternatives are half-time draw and away win (X/2 — 20%) and visitors leading at half-time with a final draw (2/X — 12%).