Vejle vs København: match statistics

København are favorites in this match due to a clear advantage in attack and form — the visitors have scored 46 goals this season compared to Vejle’s 31, and in the last 5 matches they have 13 goals with 3 wins, while Vejle have 6 goals and 0 wins in their last 5. Away, København average 1.77 goals and have xG 1.65, whereas Vejle at home score 1.38 and have xG 1.48, indicating higher quality chances created by the visitors. The visitors also attempt more shots (14.38 vs 11.38) and more shots on target (5.08 vs 4.08) and maintain higher possession (53% vs 46%), which aids their control of the game. Defensively the differences are smaller — Vejle concede 1.54 goals at home on average, and København 1.62 away, but xG against 1.26 (København) vs 1.39 (Vejle) suggests the hosts allow higher quality chances for opponents. Considering 1.8 points per game for København in the last 5 matches versus 0.8 for Vejle and the fact that the visitors win 46% of away games versus 23% home wins for the hosts, I assign a 60% probability to a København win, 25% to a draw and 15% to a Vejle win.

Both teams have high seasonal BTTS rates: Vejle 62% and København 77%, averaging 69.5% and exceeding the league mean of 60%. In the last 5 matches Vejle recorded BTTS in 100% of games and København in 80%; over that span Vejle scored 6 and conceded 7, while København scored 13 and conceded 6. Offensive metrics show Vejle generates 2.16 xG and 19.46 shots (6.0 on target) on average, whereas København posts 1.65 xG and 14.38 shots (5.08 on target) but with higher conversion 12% versus Vejle’s 9%. København has only 8% clean sheets this season versus Vejle’s 31%, and across the season Vejle have scored 31 and conceded 50, while København have 46 scored and 39 conceded; this increases the likelihood both teams find the net. Considering seasonal BTTS 62%/77%, last 5 matches 100%/80%, the low 8% clean sheets for the away side, and the xG and shots profiles, I forecast BTTS - Yes with a probability of 78% and No Goal 22%.

I estimate Vejle will score approximately 1.71 goals (calculated from attack xG 2.16 and opponent defense 1.26), and København about 1.40 goals (attack xG 1.65 vs home defense 1.14), yielding a combined 3.11 expected goals. This 3.11 is clearly above the 2.5 line and aligns with seasonal stats: Over 2.5 occurred in 54% of Vejle’s home matches, 77% of København’s away matches, and the league Over 2.5 rate is 60%. Additionally, both teams consistently score and concede — both teams to score rate is 62% for Vejle and 77% for København, and in the last 5 matches Vejle averaged 1.2 goals while København averaged 2.6 goals (total 3.8), confirming the visitors’ attacking form. Based on expected goals (3.11) and historical overs, I estimate probabilities of Over 1.5 at ~82%, Over 2.5 at ~60% and Over 3.5 at ~38%, therefore the best pick is Over 2.5.

Form and statistics favor the visitors: København have won 3 of their last 5 matches (60%), while Vejle have not recorded a win in their last 5 (0%) and four of those five fixtures finished as draws (80%). At Half-Time a stronger signal comes from København — the visitors led at the break in 40% of their last five matches and averaged 1.2 goals by half-time in those games, whereas Vejle averaged 0.2 goals by half-time and were trailing at the break in 60% of those encounters. Looking at Full-Time, København have a higher points-per-game average (1.46 vs 1.23), a higher season win percentage (46% vs 31%) and better shot conversion efficiency (12% vs 9%), which gives the visitors the edge. Vejle generate more xG at home (xG 2.16 vs 1.65 for the visitors) and take more shots (19.46 vs 14.38), but poor form (0 wins in 5) and lower Half-Time effectiveness (0.2 vs 1.2) argue against maintaining a lead. Therefore I select the scenario of the visitors leading at the break and winning at full-time (HT/FT 2/2) as the strongest signal; additionally, the percentage of matches in which both teams scored is 62% for the hosts and 77% for the visitors, suggesting realistic scorelines of 0–2 or 1–2.