Vendsyssel vs Aarhus Fremad: match statistics

Aarhus Fremad sit 4th, three places above Vendsyssel, and remain unbeaten in their last five matches, recording 2 wins and 3 draws. The visitors have been particularly solid defensively: they have conceded just 2 goals in their last five games, while averaging 0.67 goals conceded per away match compared with Vendsyssel’s 1.67 at home. The hosts do, however, create quality chances, as shown by their home xG of 1.69 with 16 shots per match, higher than Aarhus Fremad’s away xG of 1.35. Vendsyssel’s main issue is their finishing, as despite these opportunities they average only 0.67 goals at home and fail to score in 33% of matches. Aarhus Fremad’s away record includes as many as 67% draws, while both teams average 1.8 points per match across their last five league fixtures. Therefore, a share of the points in a low-scoring encounter appears the most likely outcome.

Seasonal BTTS indicators are high, standing at 75% for Vendsyssel and 67% for Aarhus Fremad, but recent form clearly weakens this signal: across their last 5 matches, both teams recorded BTTS in only 40% of games. Aarhus Fremad have conceded just 0.4 goals per match recently, keeping a clean sheet in 33% of the entire season, which makes it difficult for the hosts to capitalize on their home advantage. The visitors themselves have scored only 0.8 goals per game over their last five appearances, while Vendsyssel have failed to score in 25% of their season matches. Although the xG from the last five matches stands at 1.59 for Vendsyssel and 1.30 for Aarhus Fremad, the visitors' solid current defensive performance and both sides' weaker attacking efficiency shift the forecast toward a BTTS - No scenario, meaning that at least one team is expected not to score.

The 2.30-goal projection is based on the combination of both teams’ moderate attacking efficiency: the hosts average 1.50 goals scored, while the visitors average 1.00. Aarhus Fremad have been very solid defensively, conceding just 0.67 goals per match and keeping a clean sheet in 33% of their games, which limits Vendsyssel’s attacking potential. In their last five matches, the visitors conceded only 2 goals, or 0.40 per game, while just 20% of their matches went Over 2.5 goals. The 3.5 line is also strongly supported by the season data: Over 3.5 occurred in 25% of the hosts’ matches and 0% of the visitors’ games. Although both teams’ xG figures from their last five appearances suggest chances at both ends, values of 1.59 and 1.30 do not point to a scenario requiring at least four goals.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time followed by a Vendsyssel win, as Aarhus Fremad were level at the break in 60% of their last five matches and scored just 0.2 goals per game before half-time during that period. Vendsyssel have a clearly stronger second-half profile: they average 1.0 goals after the interval, while their opponents failed to score in the second halves, and the visitors won this period in 25% of matches without losing it even once. The visitors are difficult to beat, having recorded no defeats throughout the season, while as many as 67% of their matches ended in draws, further supporting the likelihood of a cautious start. At the same time, Vendsyssel won 60% of their last five matches, whereas Aarhus Fremad drew 60% over the same period, so the home side's advantage should emerge after the break. The visitors' attacking potential cannot be overlooked, with an average xG of 1.35 compared with the hosts' 1.10, but their poor recent finishing before half-time limits the likelihood of an early lead for the away side.