Vendsyssel vs Hillerød: match statistics

Vendsyssel have been on a clearly more stable run: they have collected 8 points from their last five matches, compared with Hillerød’s 5, while the goal difference in this phase stands at 12:7 versus 19:10. The hosts are still without a home win, but they create chances worth an average of 1.54 xG and maintain 53% possession, whereas Hillerød have just 43% possession away from home. The visitors are dangerous in front of goal, averaging 8.5 shots on target and scoring 2 goals per away match, but they also concede as many as 3 goals per game and allow opponents 2.17 xG. Both teams have lost all of their matches so far at home and away respectively, yet Hillerød’s weaker defense and Vendsyssel’s stronger recent form point to the hosts finally breaking their duck. The match should be open, as neither side has kept a clean sheet, but the hosts have the greater chance of scoring the decisive goal.

The BTTS pick is supported by very weak defensive indicators: Vendsyssel concede an average of 2.0 goals, while Hillerød concede as many as 3.0 goals per match, with both teams recording a 0% clean-sheet rate. The hosts score an average of 1.5 goals, compared with 2.0 for the visitors, while their average xG figures stand at 1.78 and 1.59 respectively, indicating genuine attacking potential on both sides. In their last five matches, BTTS landed in 80% of Vendsyssel’s games and 60% of Hillerød’s, with an average of 2.4 and 3.8 goals scored respectively. In addition, both teams allow their opponents a high xG: 1.89 for Vendsyssel and 2.05 for Hillerød over their last five appearances. The league records BTTS in 70% of matches, so a scenario in which both teams score is clearly more likely than BTTS No, meaning that at least one team fails to score.

The profile of both teams clearly points to goals: Vendsyssel score an average of 1.5 goals, while Hillerød score as many as 2.0, and they concede 2.0 and 3.0 goals per match, respectively. The quality-of-chances data also suggests an open game, with the hosts generating an average of 1.78 xG, while the visitors’ defense allows 2.17 xG; on the other hand, Hillerød produce 1.59 xG, while Vendsyssel allow 1.92 xG. In their last five matches, the two teams averaged a combined 6.2 goals per game, while the Over 2.5 goals line landed in 80% of Vendsyssel’s matches and 60% of Hillerød’s. However, the strongest selection is Over 1.5 goals, as neither team has kept a clean sheet yet, and the hosts have scored at least 2 goals in every match so far this season.

Vendsyssel are in clearly better current form: over their last five matches, they have averaged 2.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, while Hillerød have scored 3.8 goals but allowed 2.0. The hosts led at the break in three of their last five matches, averaging 1.4 goals before half-time, compared with just 0.8 for the visitors. Vendsyssel’s advantage after the interval is also significant, as they have averaged 1.5 goals in the second half at home and won both second halves, whereas Hillerød have conceded as many as 2.5 goals after the break away from home. Hillerød do average 8.5 shots on target compared with the hosts’ 5.0, but their defense allows an average of 2.17 xG and 3.0 goals per match. The most likely scenario is therefore that Vendsyssel will capitalise on their stronger start and the opponents’ defensive weaknesses to maintain their lead until full-time.