Venezia vs Fiorentina: match statistics

Venezia remain without a point after three matchdays, but they create significantly more at home: averaging 19 shots, 7 shots on target and 2.14 xG, compared with Fiorentina’s 9 shots, 4 attempts on target and 1.12 xG away from home. The hosts have yet to convert this advantage into goals, failing to score at home despite recording high 71% possession; however, the volume of chances created points to a breakthrough. Fiorentina’s away defensive record looks particularly weak: they concede an average of 4 goals per match and allow opponents 2.06 xG, while Venezia restrict their opponents to 1.32 xG. Both teams have lost all of their respective home and away matches so far and failed to keep a clean sheet in 100% of those games, increasing the likelihood of goals. Fiorentina have a slightly better record over their last five matches, averaging 0.8 points per game compared with Venezia’s 0.6, but the hosts’ advantage in the quality and number of chances created gives them a greater chance of securing their first win.

Both teams have a BTTS rate of 60% across their last five matches, above the league average of 54%. During this period, Venezia and Fiorentina scored 1.2 goals per game each, while also conceding as many as 2.2 goals on average. Venezia create significantly more chances at home, recording an xG of 1.96 and 19.5 shots per match, while Fiorentina have kept a clean sheet in none of the available fixtures. However, the visitors show a weaker attacking signal in the season data, having yet to score and failing to find the net in 100% of these matches, which limits confidence in the pick. Despite this, Venezia’s defense has conceded 2.5 goals on average, and their current xG against stands at 1.52, so a scenario in which both sides score remains slightly more likely.

Both teams have averaged 1.2 goals scored over their last 5 matches, while each has also conceded 2.2 goals per game, creating a favorable profile for at least two goals. Venezia have generated 1.96 xG and 19.5 shots per match at home, while Fiorentina have allowed opponents 2.06 xG away from home. On the other hand, Fiorentina have averaged 1.39 xG across their last five matches, while Venezia have allowed opponents 1.52 xG. In their last five appearances, matches featuring at least three goals accounted for 60% of Venezia’s games and 80% of Fiorentina’s, compared with the league average of 54%. The strongest selection is Over 1.5 goals, as both teams have poor defensive records and their recent matches have produced an average of 3.4 goals.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time followed by a Venezia win, as the hosts were level at the break in 3 of their last 5 matches, while their average first-half goal tally is only 0.4. After the interval, the hosts’ advantage should increase: over their last five matches, they have averaged 0.8 goals in the second half and won that period in 40% of cases, compared with Fiorentina’s 0.6 goals and 20% of second-half wins. Venezia also create significantly more chances, recording an xG of 1.96 with 19.5 shots per match, while Fiorentina allow opponents an xG of 2.06. The visitors remain dangerous before the break, having led at half-time in 40% of their last five matches, so scenarios involving a Fiorentina full-time win still account for a significant share. However, Fiorentina have conceded an average of 1.6 goals after half-time in their last five matches and have kept no clean sheets during that period, strengthening the Venezia turnaround scenario.