Ventforet Kofu vs Tochigi City: match statistics

Tochigi City have a slight edge: they sit 13th compared with Ventforet Kofu in 20th, and have won 40% of their away matches, while the hosts have a 20% home win rate. The visitors average 13.8 shots and 5.4 on target per away match, compared with Kofu’s 8.8 and 3 respectively at home, giving Tochigi a better chance of creating opportunities. The visitors also have the edge in chance quality, with an away xG of 1.61 against the hosts’ 1.12, although Tochigi allow opponents high-value chances, conceding an xG of 2.52 per match. Both teams have lost their last five matches, scoring 3 goals and conceding 12 apiece over that run, so neither can point to a positive form trend. Backing Tochigi to win is a cautious pick, particularly as the visitors have failed to score in 60% of their away matches.

The strongest indication against BTTS - Yes is the fact that Tochigi City have failed to score in 60% of their matches, despite averaging 1.4 goals. In their last 5 games, both teams scored an average of 0.6 goals per match, increasing the risk that one side will once again fail to find the net. The case for BTTS - Yes is supported by weak defending: both teams have conceded an average of 2.4 goals recently, while both sides scored in 75% of Ventforet Kofu’s matches. Even so, that figure stands at just 40% for Tochigi, so it is slightly more likely that at least one team will fail to score.

The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals: this line was surpassed in 100% of Ventforet Kofu’s matches and 80% of Tochigi City’s matches. The hosts average 2.0 goals scored, while the visitors allow opponents chances worth 2.52 xG per match, which points to goals for Kofu. On the other hand, Tochigi record 1.61 xG per match, while Kofu concede an average of 2.0 goals, so the visitors could also contribute to the scoreline. Caution around higher lines is warranted, as both teams have scored just 0.6 goals per match across their last five games; Over 1.5 goals therefore offers a clearer edge than Over 2.5 or Over 3.5 goals.

Kofu were level at half-time in 3 of their last 5 matches, while Tochigi City averaged just 0.2 goals before the break over that period, making a draw at half-time the most likely outcome. Although the visitors were trailing at the break in all of their last 5 matches, the hosts did not score before half-time during the same period, weakening the case for an early lead. After the break, season-long figures favor Kofu: the hosts average 1.25 goals scored and 0.25 conceded, while Tochigi concede an average of 0.8 goals. Kofu’s xG of 1.57, compared with the 2.52 expected goals conceded by the visitors’ defense, also strengthens the chance of breaking the deadlock. However, the X/1 pick remains uncertain, as Kofu have lost their last 5 matches and conceded an average of 1.8 goals after half-time in those games.