Vianense vs CD Trofense: match statistics

Vianense sit 5th, while CD Trofense are eighth, with the difference becoming even clearer when looking at recent form: the hosts have collected 7 points from their last five matches, compared with just 2 for the visitors. Vianense have scored 8 goals during this period—an average of 1.6 per game—whereas Trofense have managed just 1, significantly limiting the visitors’ attacking potential. The hosts also have the stronger defensive record, conceding 5 goals in their last five matches compared with 6 for the visitors. Trofense have failed to win any of their last five games, suffering 3 defeats, while Vianense have recorded 2 victories. Their superior efficiency and more stable recent results, combined with home advantage, point towards a Vianense win, although a draw remains a realistic possibility given the hosts’ 1 draw and the visitors’ 2 draws during this run.

The strongest signal points towards BTTS - No, meaning that at least one team is expected not to score, as both teams recorded matches with goals scored by both sides in only 20% of their last five games, compared with the league average of 30%. Trofense scored just 1 goal during this period, averaging 0.2 per match, while Vianense conceded only 1.0 goal on average. The hosts have been more effective, scoring 8 times in their last five appearances, but the visitors’ weak attack clearly reduces the chances of a BTTS - Yes outcome. Trofense’s xG from its last five matches stands at 0.99, while Vianense generates 1.2 xG, which supports a home win to nil more than an exchange of goals. Additionally, the league average of 1.9 goals per match indicates a low-scoring competition, favoring a scenario in which at least one team fails to score.

League data point to a very low-scoring profile: the average is just 1.9 goals per match, while games with at least three goals account for 30%. CD Trofense have scored just 1 goal in their last five matches, averaging 0.2 per game, with an xG of 0.99. Vianense have a stronger attacking record, averaging 1.6 goals scored across their last five outings, but only 20% of their matches during this period saw both teams score. The hosts average 7 shots, with only 1 on target, limiting their potential for a high-scoring game despite an xG of 1.20 over their last five matches. The strongest signal is Under 3.5 goals, as the visitors’ poor attacking output and the league’s low average significantly reduce the likelihood of four goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Vianense win, as the hosts have averaged 1.6 goals over their last five matches, compared with just 0.2 for Trofense. Before the break, Vianense led in 40% of those games and were level in 40%, while the visitors never held a half-time lead, drawing at the interval in 60% of their matches. After the break, the hosts averaged 1.0 goal per game, whereas Trofense failed to score in this period and had not found the net after half-time in 100% of their last five appearances. Vianense also have clearly superior recent points form, averaging 1.4 points per game compared with 0.4 for the visitors, who have not won any of their last five matches. A cautious start is plausible, but the hosts’ attacking advantage should grow after the break and translate into a full-time victory. The HT/FT pick is X/1.