Videoton vs Diósgyőr: match statistics

Videoton have a clearly superior home record: they win 67% of their matches, score an average of 2.00 goals and concede just 0.67 goals per game. Diósgyőr lose 67% of their away matches, while their defense concedes as many as 3.33 goals on average, without a single clean sheet. The hosts also create higher-quality chances, recording an average xG of 1.74 compared with 1.41 for the visitors, while their xG against is also lower: 1.25 versus 1.55. Both teams are in poor overall form, with Videoton losing 4 of their last 5 matches and Diósgyőr losing 3 of 5, but the hosts’ advantage in shots on target created, 5.67 to 4.67, combined with their significantly tighter defense, points to a home win. The visitors can still pose a threat, having scored 5 goals in each of their last five matches, but their high number of goals conceded should ultimately decide the outcome.

The signal for both teams to score is clear, as Videoton have recorded BTTS in 80% of their last 5 matches, while Diósgyőr have done so in 60%; across the entire season, the figures stand at 50% and 67%, respectively. Neither team has kept a single clean sheet, with the hosts conceding an average of 1.50 goals and the visitors as many as 3.33 goals per match. Recent defensive form also supports the BTTS scenario: Videoton have conceded an average of 1.8 goals in their last five fixtures, while Diósgyőr have conceded 2.6. The hosts create 1.76 xG per match and register 5.5 shots on target, so despite their low season average of 0.5 goals scored, they should exploit the opposition’s defensive weakness. Diósgyőr average 1.33 goals scored, while Videoton also regularly allow opponents chances worth 1.41 xG, further strengthening the BTTS - Yes tip.

The strongest signal points to at least two goals, as both teams have cleared this line in 100% of their league matches so far. Diósgyőr concede as many as 3.33 goals per match on average, while Videoton produce 16.5 shots and 5.5 shots on target per game, giving the hosts clear attacking potential despite averaging only 0.5 goals scored. The visitors average 1.33 goals, while Videoton concede 1.50, so a goal from Diósgyőr is also a realistic scenario. In their last five matches, both teams have conceded heavily: Videoton 1.8 goals per game and Diósgyőr 2.6, with the percentage of matches finishing Over 2.5 goals standing at 80% and 60%, respectively. The combined projected xG of around 3.03 supports Over 1.5 as the safest line, although Over 2.5 also holds a moderate edge.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Videoton victory, as the hosts have been level at the break in all of their last five matches, while Diósgyőr were trailing after 45 minutes in 60% of that run. Videoton create clearly better chances, averaging 1.76 xG compared with the visitors’ 1.41, and also register an average of 16.5 shots per match versus their opponents’ 10.33. The second half could be decisive in determining the outcome: Diósgyőr concede an average of 2.33 goals in the season data and 1.6 goals across their last five appearances. The hosts also struggle to convert their dominance into goals, averaging only 0.5 goals this season despite 5.5 shots on target per match, which makes a cautious draw before the break more likely than an early lead for them. The visitors’ high average of 3.33 goals conceded and the absence of clean sheets for either side increase Videoton’s chances of settling the match after half-time.