Vihren Sandanski vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas: match statistics

Vihren Sandanski are showing clearly better current form: they remain unbeaten in their last five matches, recording 3 wins and 2 draws, while Chernomorets 1919 Burgas have lost 2 of their 5 games. The hosts have scored 9 goals during this period compared with the visitors’ 5, and their average of 2.2 points per game is higher than the opponents’ 1.4. At home, Vihren create significantly more chances, averaging 17 shots and 8 on target, compared with Chernomorets’ just 5 shots and 2 on target away from home. The quality of chances also favors the hosts, whose average xG stands at 2.13, while the visitors generate only 0.69 xG. Both teams drew their only previous meeting, respectively at home and away, so a draw remains a realistic outcome; however, Vihren’s attacking intensity gives them a greater chance of securing the win.

The BTTS signal is moderately positive: in their last 5 matches, Vihren recorded both teams scoring in 60% of games, while Chernomorets did so in 40%, with averages of 1.8 and 1.0 goals scored, respectively. The hosts are in good offensive form, with an average xG of 1.67 across their last five appearances, while the visitors conceded an average of 1.4 goals per match during this period. Chernomorets create fewer chances, with an average xG of 1.06, but despite conceding just 0.8 goals per game on average, Vihren have an xG against of 1.39, giving the visitors a realistic route to scoring. The main argument against the pick is the very small sample of current home data, in which Vihren kept a clean sheet in 100% of matches; however, the broader form and the visitors’ defensive profile point slightly more strongly towards goals at both ends. Therefore, BTTS - Yes is the preferred selection.

In their last five matches, Vihren averaged 1.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded, while Chernomorets scored 1.0 goal and conceded 1.4, indicating a home-team edge without clear potential for a very high-scoring game. Vihren's latest xG stands at 1.67, while the visitors allow 1.27 xG; meanwhile, Chernomorets' attack generates 1.06 xG against 1.39 xG allowed by the hosts. The estimated total of 2.60 goals remains well below the 3.5 line. In the current data for both teams, none of the matches exceeded 3.5 goals, and 100% of each team's games finished under 2.5 goals. Although in their five most recent outings, the percentage of matches with at least three goals was 60% for Vihren and 40% for Chernomorets, the more consistent choice is Under 3.5.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Vihren win at full-time, as the hosts have averaged 2.2 points per match across their last five fixtures while remaining unbeaten, whereas Chernomorets have lost 40% of their matches. The first halves are expected to be cautious: Vihren have averaged 0.4 goals before the break and the visitors 0.2, while both teams have kept a clean sheet at half-time in 80% and 60% of their respective recent appearances. After the break, the hosts’ advantage should increase, as they have averaged 1.4 goals scored and just 0.6 conceded in the second half, compared with the visitors’ averages of 0.8 scored and 0.8 conceded. Vihren also have superior current attacking output, averaging 1.8 goals scored over their last five matches compared with the opponents’ 1.0, while their xG stands at 0.93 versus 0.69 for Chernomorets. The hosts have been leading at the break in 40% of their recent matches, but the low-scoring profile of the first half provides stronger support for a balanced opening followed by a decisive second half.