Vihren Sandanski vs Fratria: match statistics

Vihren Sandanski holds a clear advantage in home metrics: at home they average 2.21 goals per game, 16.08 shots with 10.38 on target and an xG of 2.04, whereas Fratria away averages 1.43 goals, 11.14 shots and 6.43 shots on target with xG 1.53. In the last 5 matches both sides have scored 10 goals each, but Fratria remains unbeaten (0 losses, 1.8 points per game) compared to Vihren, who have 1.4 points and 2 losses in that period. Defensively the hosts also look better at home: they concede 0.79 goals on average and keep clean sheets in 43% of matches, while the visitors concede 0.86 on the road and have 29% clean sheets. At home Vihren win 64% of matches versus Fratria’s 43% away win rate, and the hosts’ goal difference at the stadium is +20 compared to the visitors’ +8 on the road, which favors the home side. Considering the xG advantage (2.04 vs 1.53), higher number of shots on target (10.38 vs 6.43) and better clean sheet rate, I favor a Vihren win and assign probabilities of 60% for the hosts, 25% for a draw and 15% for an away victory.

I back BTTS - Yes — both teams display relatively high scoring rates this season: Vihren 50% of matches with both teams scoring, Fratria 57%, averaging ~54% versus the league level of 45%. In the last 5 matches Fratria recorded BTTS in 80% of games, Vihren in 40%, and both teams scored 10 goals and conceded 5 (averaging 2.0 scored and 1.0 conceded per match), indicating form favorable to goals from both sides. xG and shot data confirm offensive potential: Vihren generates 1.83 xG with 7.5 shots on target, Fratria 1.53 xG with 6.43 shots on target, while Fratria concedes 1.60 xG per match versus Vihren's 1.10 xG, so the home side has realistic scoring chances and Fratria also creates opportunities. Although both teams concede below 1 goal on average across the season (0.93 and 0.86) and Vihren has 43% clean sheets, the predominance of attacking signals and Fratria's high BTTS rate (80% in L5) lead me to price BTTS at roughly 62% versus 38% for No Goal.

Data indicate a high goal potential: Vihren averages 2.29 goals per match, Fratria 1.43, giving a combined seasonal average of 3.72 goals. An xG-based model (attacking xG 1.83 for Vihren and 1.53 for Fratria, defensive xG 1.10 for Vihren and 1.60 for Fratria) yields an expectation of 1.72 goals for the home side and 1.32 for the away side, total 3.04. At this total the probability distribution implies roughly 81% chance of Over 1.5, about 59% for Over 2.5 and around 36% for Over 3.5, and in the last 5 matches both teams produced Over 2.5 in 60% of cases. Seasonal Over 2.5 rates are 64% for Vihren versus 29% for Fratria, and seasonal BTTS is 50% and 57%, so the strongest and most reliable signal is Over 1.5.

Vihren holds a clear advantage: the hosts led at the break in 8 matches (57%), score on average 1.00 goal in the first half while conceding only 0.43, and at home they average 2.29 goals and win 71% of fixtures. Fratria away averages 1.43 goals per game and concedes 0.86; its xG is 1.53 versus the hosts’ 1.83, while xG against is 1.60 for Fratria and 1.10 for Vihren, suggesting superior chance creation and a larger defensive gap for the visitors. After the break Vihren improves further — in second halves they average 1.29 goals (vs 0.64 for Fratria) and have 86% of matches with at least one goal after the interval, so they can maintain or extend a lead. Considering the 57% HT leads and 71% home win rate, the most likely scenario is the hosts leading at half-time and winning at full-time (1/1); alternatives include a draw at half-time with a later Vihren win (X/1) and a full-time draw (X/X).