Víkingur Reykjavík vs KA: match statistics

Víkingur Reykjavík are clear favorites: the hosts have scored 45 goals this season while conceding only 7, whereas KA have 17 scored and 25 conceded. At home Víkingur average 3.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded per match, register 7.83 shots on target and a conversion rate of 19%, while KA away average 1.5 goals per match, 4.83 shots on target and a 10% conversion. xG values confirm the hosts' superiority: Víkingur have xG 2.28 with xG against 0.99 (difference +1.29), and KA have xG 1.8 with xG against 2.26 (difference -0.46), suggesting the hosts create and convert better chances. Form is also with Víkingur: in the last 5 matches the hosts won 4 times and average 2.4 points per game, while KA have not won any of their last 5 and have 0 points, conceding 16 goals. Given the clear advantage in efficiency, shots on target (7.83 vs 4.83) and defensive stability (0.5 conceded vs 2.17), I predict a home win; proposed probabilities: home 78%, draw 12%, away 10%.

The league has a high proportion of matches with both teams scoring: 73% and an average of 4.04 goals per match, which favors the BTTS - Yes option. KA presents a very strong BTTS signal: 83% on the season and 80% in the last 5 matches, with an average of 2.17 goals conceded on the season and 3.2 in the last 5, meaning the visitors frequently concede. Víkingur in the last 5 matches scored 13 goals (2.6 per match) with xG 1.79 and conceded 5 goals (1.0 per match), indicating the home side’s offensive efficiency with moderate defensive solidity. Clean sheets are rare for both teams: Víkingur 17% and KA 17% on the season, while season BTTS share is 50% for the home team and 83% for the visitors, further boosting the likelihood of both sides scoring. Based on this, I assess the probability of BTTS at 78% for Yes and 22% for No — I pick Yes, because the high league BTTS rate (73%) and KA’s very strong indicator (83%/80% in last 5) outweigh Víkingur’s defensive improvement.

Both teams have 83% of matches over 1.5 goals, which is a strong, direct signal for the over. I calculated expected goals using xG: the home attack xG 1.54 versus the away defense xG 2.26 yields ~1.90 for Víkingur, and 1.80 (KA attack xG) versus 1.66 (xG against Víkingur) yields ~1.73 for KA, totaling 3.63 goals. Additionally, the league averages 4.04 goals per game, and both teams have 80% of their last 5 matches over 2.5, increasing the likelihood of higher lines. BTTS is 50% for the home side and 83% for the away side, and average shots on target 4.33 vs 4.83 confirm both teams regularly create chances, so the strongest and most reliable signal from the data is Over 1.5 goals.

Víkingur is in form with 4 wins in their last 5 matches (80% win rate in the last 5), while KA has lost all 5 of their most recent games (0% win rate), which strongly favors the home side to be leading at full-time. In the first half Víkingur led in 60% of their last 5 matches (3 of 5), while KA did not lead in any (0%), and the home side’s average goals at half-time this season is 0.83 versus 0.00 for the visitors (0.83 vs 0.00), so the most likely half-time scenario is a Víkingur lead. On the other hand KA has a slightly higher attacking xG (xG 1.80 vs 1.54 for Víkingur) and scores more often after the break on a seasonal basis (on average 2.50 goals after half-time vs 1.33), which creates a risk of a turnaround. However, given Víkingur’s control after the break in the last 5 matches (an average of 2.4 points in second halves and 80% win rate in second halves vs 1.2 points and 20% for KA), the strongest signal is that the hosts will maintain their lead — pick 1/1 (HT/FT).