Víkingur Reykjavík vs Valur: match statistics

Víkingur Reykjavík are league leaders and have recorded 15 wins and just 1 defeat throughout the season, while Valur sit 7th with a record of 7 wins and 10 losses. The hosts win 78% of their home matches, score an average of 3.44 goals and have not lost a single game, whereas Valur concede an average of 1.67 goals away from home. Víkingur’s superiority is also evident in chance creation: their average home xG stands at 2.34 compared with Valur’s 1.59 away from home, while their xG conceded is significantly lower at 1.03 versus 2.19. The visitors are also in poor form, having collected just 4 points from their last five matches and conceded 15 goals during that run, making a home win the most likely outcome.

Víkingur has recorded BTTS in 90% of its matches, while Valur has done so in 56%, compared with a league average of 71%, clearly favouring goals from both sides. The hosts score an average of 2.00 goals but concede as many as 2.50, whereas Valur averages 1.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per match. In their last five matches, both teams have been even more defensively open: Víkingur conceded 2.2 goals per game and Valur as many as 3.0, while averaging 2.2 and 1.8 goals scored, respectively. Their attacking potential is supported by xG figures of 1.92 for the hosts and 1.59 for the visitors, while both teams also allow opponents a high xG: 2.27 and 2.19. Clean sheets are rare, occurring in only 10% of Víkingur’s matches and 11% of Valur’s, making BTTS - Yes the most likely scenario.

The match profile clearly points to goals: Víkingur average 2.00 goals scored, while Valur concede 1.67, and the hosts have conceded as many as 2.5 goals per game. In their last five matches, the two teams recorded an average of 8.0 total goals per game, with Víkingur scoring and conceding 2.2 goals, while Valur scored 1.8 and allowed opponents 3.0. The quality of chances also supports a high-scoring game: Víkingur’s average xG is 1.92, compared with Valur’s 2.19 xG conceded, while Valur generate 1.59 xG against a home defense allowing 2.27 xG. At least 2 goals were scored in 100% of Víkingur’s matches and 67% of Valur’s, making Over 1.5 the strongest and most consistent pick.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Víkingur victory in the match, as the hosts were level at the break in 3 of their last 5 games, representing 60% of cases. Over the same period, Valur were trailing at half-time in 3 of 5 matches, scoring just 0.6 goals per game before the break and conceding 1.4. Current form clearly favors the hosts: Víkingur have averaged 1.6 points over their last five matches, compared with just 0.8 for Valur, while the visitors have lost 3 of those 5 games. After the interval, Valur have recently conceded an average of 1.6 goals, whereas Víkingur have scored 1.0, further strengthening the hosts’ chances of deciding a closely contested opening phase of the match. In HT/FT terms, the most likely outcome is X/1.