Viktoria Plzeň vs Slovan Liberec: match statistics

Viktoria Plzeň holds a clear form advantage: in the last 5 matches they scored 10 goals and have a record of 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss (wwdwl), while Slovan Liberec scored only 2 goals and lost all 5 matches in the same period (0-0-5). This translates to a goals-per-game average of 2.0 for Viktoria versus 0.4 for Slovan and indicates a pronounced offensive effectiveness for the home side. Defensively the hosts conceded 4 goals in 5 matches (0.8 per game), while the visitors conceded 9 goals (1.8 per game), highlighting greater defensive vulnerability in Liberec. Additionally, Viktoria averages 2 points per match over the last 5, while Slovan averages 0 points per match (2.0 vs 0.0), which increases the hosts' edge and supports a home win despite their lower league position (14th vs 10th).

In the last 5 matches Viktoria Plzeň scored 10 goals (2.0 per game) and conceded 4 (0.8 per game), while Slovan Liberec managed only 2 goals (0.4 per game) and conceded 9 (1.8 per game). xG confirms the gap: Plzeň has average xG for 2.0 and xG against 0.96, and Liberec xG for 1.15 and xG against 1.77, suggesting the home side creates significantly more chances while the visitors struggle defensively. BTTS rates in the last 5 matches also point to a closed scenario — Plzeň had BTTS in 20% of games (1 of 5), Liberec in 40% (2 of 5), so both teams scoring is not regular here. Additionally form shows Plzeň with 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in the last 5 (wwdwl), while Liberec lost all 5 matches (lllll), increasing the likelihood of a one-sided affair. On this basis I estimate 75% for 'No' and 25% for 'Yes', because the hosts are likely to score (2.0 on average) and the visitors have very low scoring efficiency (0.4), which gives a strong signal for no BTTS.

Viktoria Plzeň in the last 5 matches averaged 2.0 goals scored and 0.8 conceded, while Slovan Liberec averaged 0.4 goals scored and 1.8 conceded. xG metrics confirm the home advantage: Plzeň has 2.00 xG per match, Liberec 1.15, and Liberec’s defense concedes 1.77 xG versus 0.96 xG conceded to Plzeň. Combining Plzeň’s attack (2.00 xG) with Liberec’s defense (1.77) yields about 1.89 expected goals for the home side, and the combination of Liberec’s attack (1.15 xG) with Plzeň’s defense (0.96) gives ~1.06; including actual goals (Plzeň 2.0, Liberec 0.4) and averaging, the final expectation is ~1.89 for Plzeň and ~0.83 for Liberec (total ~2.72). Based on this, I assess the probability of Over 1.5 goals at ~88% (strong signal), Over 2.5 at ~62% (moderate), and Over 3.5 at ~28% (low). Additionally, Plzeň had Over 2.5 in 60% of their last 5 matches, Liberec in 40%, which reinforces taking the Over side on the 1.5 line as the optimal choice.

Statistics from the last five matches clearly favor Viktoria Plzeň: the home side scores an average of 2.0 goals per game and concedes 0.8, while Slovan Liberec averages 0.4 scored and 1.8 conceded — a clear offensive and defensive advantage for the hosts. At half-time Plzeň led at the break in 40% of matches and average 1.2 HT goals, whereas Liberec has 0.0 HT goals and led at the break in 0% of cases, so the hosts are most often the team to open the scoring. The hosts won 60% of those five games and the visitors lost 100%, therefore the scenario of Plzeň leading at the break and winning by full-time (1/1) is assessed as the strongest and I assign it a 30% probability. As alternatives I give 20% to a half-time draw with a home win (X/1) and 6% to draw/draw (X/X), because both teams had 80% of matches with at least one goal in the first half, but Liberec rarely scores before the break (0.0 HT) and concedes on average 1.0 goal by half-time. Scenarios with Liberec leading or winning (e.g. 2/2 4% or 1/2 2%) are unlikely given their 0.4 average goals scored and 100% losses in the last five fixtures.