Villefranche vs Rouen: match statistics

Rouen is the favorite: they sit 3rd with a record of 12-11-3 and goals 36–22, while Villefranche are 12th with 8-5-13 and goals 27–37. Rouen score 1.5 goals away on average with an average xG of 1.29 and concede only 1.0, whereas the home side score 1.29, have xG 1.16 and concede 1.36 on average. Visitors convert chances better: 3.83 shots on target per game and 15% conversion versus the hosts’ 3.36 SOT and 12% conversion; additionally Rouen fail to score in only 8% of away matches while Villefranche keep blank in 21% of home games. In the last 5 matches both teams scored 6 goals each, but Rouen average 1.2 points per game in that period versus 0.8 for Villefranche; the hosts also have a 43% loss rate at home against Rouen’s 8% loss rate away. Given the higher efficiency (15% vs 12%), superior xG (1.29 vs 1.16) and favorable away record, I forecast an away win, with a moderate probability of a draw due to Rouen’s high away draw rate (50%).

The "yes" scenario appears more likely: Rouen has BTTS in 75% of matches this season and 80% in the last 5, while Villefranche has 50% this season and 60% in the last 5, versus a league average of 54%. In the last 5 matches both teams scored 6 goals each and conceded on average 1.6 (Villefranche) and 1.4 (Rouen), indicating frequent goal exchanges. xG metrics show Villefranche generates 1.44 xG on average and Rouen 1.29 xG, with xG against of 0.99 for Villefranche and 1.33 for Rouen — both sides create chances and face opponents prone to conceding. The counterargument is Villefranche’s high clean sheet rate of 50% this season, but Rouen has only 25% clean sheets, and recent data (more goals conceded and high BTTS for Rouen) support both teams scoring. Therefore I recommend BTTS - Yes with a probability of 70% versus 30% for No.

The xG-based model projects 1.39 goals for Villefranche (attacking xG 1.44 vs average xG conceded by Rouen 1.33) and 1.14 for Rouen (attacking xG 1.29 vs average xG conceded by Villefranche 0.99), totaling approximately 2.53 goals. Season Over 1.5 rates are 57% for Villefranche and 83% for Rouen (average 70%), while BTTS is 50% (home) and 75% (away), averaging 62.5%, which strongly supports at least 2 goals — therefore I assign a 78% probability to Over 1.5. For the 2.5 line, season Over 2.5 is 43% (home) and 42% (away), averaging 42.5%, with the last 5 matches showing 60% (Villefranche) and 40% (Rouen) — hence a moderate signal and a 48% probability for Over 2.5. Over 3.5 is unlikely: season Over 3.5 are 14% and 25% (average 19.5%), and the expected 2.53 goals are well below 3.5, so I rate Under 3.5 at 82%.

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a home win at full-time (X/1): the home side drew at the break in 57% of their matches and the visitors in 58%, which strongly signals a HT draw. The home team wins 50% of matches this season versus 42% for the visitors, and the advantage is confirmed by xG — 1.44 for Villefranche versus 1.29 for Rouen — plus fewer xG conceded (0.99 vs 1.33), supporting goals for the hosts after the break. The first half should be low-scoring: the hosts average 0.93 goals in the first half, the visitors 1.33, and the hosts have kept a clean sheet in 71% of first halves, so a HT draw is likely. After the break the hosts create more chances (an average of 12.07 shots versus 9.92 for the visitors) and despite a lower conversion rate (11% versus 15% for the visitors) I expect the superiority in chances and higher xG to translate into a home turnaround, so I pick X/1.