Vis Pesaro vs Sambenedettese: match statistics

Vis Pesaro has a clear home advantage: on average 1.06 goals scored and only 0.82 conceded per match, with higher xG at home (1.54) versus Sambenedettese’s 1.26 xG away. The hosts register 11.88 shots per game with 4.29 on target, while the visitors average 10.06 shots and 3.18 on target, indicating better quality chances for Vis Pesaro. Vis keep a clean sheet in 41% of home matches versus 29% clean sheets for the visitors on the road, and in the table the hosts sit 9th compared to Sambenedettese’s 17th. The visitors, however, have been collecting more points recently (1.2 points per game in the last 5 vs 0.8 for Vis Pesaro) and have a high draw rate away (47%), so a draw is a realistic outcome. Considering the xG advantage, higher shot volume and superior defensive stats of the hosts, I predict a Vis Pesaro win.

Vis Pesaro have only 28% of matches with both teams scoring this season, while Sambenedettese sit at 53%; however, in the last 5 meetings BTTS was only 20% for Pesaro and 40% for Sambenedettese, indicating a reduced frequency of mutual scoring. The home side average 0.56 goals per match, the visitors 1.00, with an average of 1.0 goals conceded for both teams, and the home team’s shooting accuracy is only 5% versus 10% for the away side, which lowers the likelihood of a Vis Pesaro goal. xG metrics show 1.35 xG for the hosts and 1.26 xG for the visitors, but actual goal averages are lower, suggesting finishing inefficiency. Additionally, the league has a high clean sheet rate (62%) and a low goals-per-game average of 2.23, therefore the strongest signal from the data points to No BTTS (clean sheet expected/defensive struggle).

Vis Pesaro has a season xG of 1.35 but an actual goals average of only 0.56 per match, with a shot conversion rate of 5%, while Sambenedettese has xG 1.26 and scores on average 1.00 goal with a 10% conversion. Averaging opponent attack and defense yields model values of 1.39 xG for the home side and 1.30 xG for the visitors, but after adjusting for realized performance I project expected goals of 0.98 for Vis Pesaro and 1.15 for Sambenedettese, totalling 2.13 goals. From this distribution the probability of Over 1.5 goals is about 63% (over 1.5 = 63/37), while Over 2.5 is lower—around 36% (under 64%), and Over 3.5 only about 17% (under 83%). Additionally, Sambenedettese has a high season share of matches Over 1.5 goals (65%) versus 39% for Vis Pesaro, which increases the chance of at least two goals despite the home side’s low efficiency. Consequently I recommend a bet on Over 1.5 as the strongest signal: the relatively high 63% probability and combined xG of 2.13 provide value against the 1.5 line, whereas the 2.5 line does not show clear value.

Both teams frequently draw at half-time: Vis Pesaro records a half-time draw in 61% of matches, Sambenedettese in 59%, and in the first 45 minutes the visitors have scored 19 goals versus 10 for the hosts. After the break the advantage shifts to the visitors — Sambenedettese averages 1.29 points in the second half versus 0.72 for Vis Pesaro and wins the second half in 24% of matches versus 6% for the hosts. The visitors are also more efficient in finishing chances (conversion rate 10% vs 5%), with similar attacking xG: Vis Pesaro xG_for_avg 1.35 against Sambenedettese 1.26. Additionally, the hosts concede on average 0.72 goals after the break compared to 0.41 for the visitors, which increases the likelihood of a turnaround after a half-time draw. For these reasons I select the scenario draw at half-time and away win at full-time (X/2) as the most probable (34%), with a significant contribution from a full-time draw (X/X 20%) and a lower probability of the hosts leading from the start (1/1 7%).