Vllaznia Shkodër vs Teuta Durrës: match statistics

Vllaznia Shkodër is the clear favorite: at home they have an 80% win rate, score on average 1.67 goals and concede 0.53 goals per game, which at home translates to a goal difference of +17. The hosts generate significantly more chances — on average 14.73 shots and 5.33 shots on target per game with xG 1.82 — versus Teuta, who on the road average 9.6 shots and 2.6 on target with xG 1.2. Teuta struggle with finishing: only 0.73 goals away and 40% of away matches without a goal; in the last 5 matches the visitors scored 5 and conceded 7, while Vllaznia in their last 5 scored 3 and conceded 2, which translates to an average of 1.2 points for the hosts versus 1.0 for the visitors. Despite a similar clean sheet rate (53% for both teams), Vllaznia’s higher shot conversion of 11% versus Teuta’s 8% and the advantage in shots on target (5.33 vs 2.6) give the hosts a decisive offensive edge. Based on this I assess the probability of a home win at 70%, draw 18% and away win 12%.

Statistical analysis points to BTTS being less likely: Teuta keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches this season, and across the league 68% of fixtures feature at least one side keeping a clean sheet. Vllaznia have a season BTTS rate of 60% and have scored 38 goals, but their BTTS in the last 5 matches dropped to 20% — in those five they averaged 0.6 scored and 0.4 conceded goals, indicating limited attacking form. Teuta have only 33% BTTS on the season and failed to score in 40% of matches, although in the last 5 they averaged 1.0 scored and 1.4 conceded, so they can create chances but often lack finishing. xG suggests similar underlying capacity (Vllaznia xG 1.23 vs Teuta xG 1.20), but the conversion gap (Vllaznia 11% vs Teuta 8%) and Teuta’s high clean sheet rate (53%) together with the league’s 68% clean-sheet level point toward a scenario where at least one team fails to score; therefore I assess BTTS at ~35% versus 65% for No Goal and recommend backing "no" (No Goal).

The xG-based model projects the home side to score 1.15 expected goals (attacking xG Vllaznia 1.23 vs conceded xG by Teuta 1.07) and the visitors 1.08 (attacking xG Teuta 1.20 vs conceded xG by Vllaznia 0.96), yielding a total of 2.23 expected goals. This 2.23 exceeds the league average of 2.08 and is significantly higher than the sum of the teams’ seasonal averages 1.07+0.73=1.80, so a Poisson distribution indicates roughly a 65–66% probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5). Seasonal indicators confirm Vllaznia’s relative tendency for goals (60% of home matches >1.5) while both teams have a moderate pace above 2.5 (27% each), resulting in a calculated Over 2.5 of about 39% (Under 61%). Over 3.5 looks unlikely (model ~19%; seasonally 20%/13% for home/away), and additionally Vllaznia’s higher finishing rate 11% vs 8% for Teuta plus Teuta conceding 7 goals in their last 5 matches strengthens the signal for Over 1.5.

I predict a half-time draw and a full-time draw (X/X) as the most likely scenario, because both teams frequently draw at the break: Vllaznia were level at half-time in 53% of their matches and Teuta in 60% (approximately 57% on average). A draw after 90 minutes is also well supported — Vllaznia have 53% draws at home, Teuta 40% draws away, yielding roughly a ~47% average chance of a full-time draw; additionally the league’s low average goals per game (2.08) and high clean-sheet rate (68%) favor draws. The hosts, however, do have some advantage in first-half attack: they average 0.67 goals in the first half versus the visitors’ 0.20 and have 17 first-half goals compared to Teuta’s 8, but the visitors keep a clean sheet at half-time in 73% of matches, which limits Vllaznia’s edge. Therefore X/X is assigned 30% as the single strongest projection; the second-strongest option is half-time draw followed by a home win X/1 (22%) due to the hosts’ slightly higher xG (1.23 vs 1.20) and more on-target shots (3.0 vs 2.6). Scenarios starting with a Teuta lead at half-time are least likely — Teuta led at the break in only 13% of matches, so combinations beginning with 2/* collectively account for about 13% of my projection.