Voluntari vs Bihor Oradea: match statistics

Voluntari possesses a clear home advantage: in the last 5 matches they won 4 of 5 and at home score on average 1.79 goals while conceding only 0.86 per game. Bihor Oradea, despite more goals this season (48 vs 43) and a higher league position, performs worse away — averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.62 conceded, with as many as 11 goals conceded in the last 5 matches. Quality of chances favors the hosts: Voluntari xG at home is 1.94 versus 1.50 away xG for the visitors, and shots on target are 5.14 vs 4.69 per game. Defensively the difference is significant: the hosts have 50% of home matches with a clean sheet while the visitors have only 8% away, and the share of matches without scoring is 14% for Voluntari and 31% for Bihor. Considering PPG over the last 5 matches (2.6 vs 1.2), the xG advantage and superior defense, I predict a home win; estimated probabilities: home 65%, draw 20%, away 15%.

Both teams exhibit high season BTTS rates: Voluntari 64% and Bihor Oradea 62%, yielding an average around 63%, well above the league average of 49%. Voluntari score 2.0 goals per game on average (xG 1.88) and have 43 goals this season, while Bihor record 1.54 goals per game (xG 1.5) but concede 1.62 on average and have 38 goals conceded this season. In the last 5 matches Voluntari have conceded only 2 goals (0.4 per game) with a BTTS of 40% in that sample, whereas Bihor have conceded 11 goals (2.2 per game) and have an 80% BTTS in their last 5. Additionally, Voluntari average 6.07 shots on target per match versus Bihor’s 4.69, and the xG comparison (Voluntari xG_for 1.88 vs Bihor xG_against 1.58 and Bihor xG_for 1.5 vs Voluntari xG_against 1.1) suggests both teams will create genuine scoring opportunities. Considering the season 64%/62% BTTS, Bihor’s weak defense in the last 5 (11 conceded) and the high xG for both sides, I prefer BTTS - Yes with an estimated probability of 70% (against 30% for No).

Voluntari average 2.0 goals scored at home with xG 1.88 and concede 1.21, while Bihor Oradea average 1.54 goals away with xG 1.50 and concede 1.62. Based on xG the projection is 1.73 goals for the home side (attacking xG 1.88 and opponents' defensive xG 1.58) and 1.30 for the away side (attacking xG 1.50 and home defensive xG 1.10), totaling 3.03 goals. Seasonal percentages show Over 1.5 in 86% of Voluntari matches and 85% of Bihor matches, and Over 2.5 occurred in 64% and 77% of cases respectively — averaging about 70.5%. Additionally, Over 2.5 with both teams scoring occurred in 56% (Voluntari) and 62% (Bihor) of matches. In the last 5 games Voluntari have scored 8 and conceded 2 (1.6/0.4 per match), while Bihor have scored 8 and conceded 11 (1.6/2.2), therefore I recommend backing Over 2.5 — the expected 3.03 goals exceeds that line and provides the strongest signal.

The most likely scenario is Voluntari leading at the break and winning the match (1/1) — I assign this a 31% probability; the second-strongest signal is a draw at half-time and Voluntari winning (X/1) at 25%, while draw/draw (X/X) is 11%. Voluntari have won 4 of their last 5 matches (80%) and in those 5 fixtures they led at the break in 60% of cases (3 of 5), whereas Bihor have 2 wins in their last 5 (40%) and led at the break in 20%. The home side have superior offensive metrics: on average 2.00 goals per game vs. Bihor’s 1.54, xG 1.88 vs. 1.50, and 15.43 shots per game with 6.07 on target compared to the opponent’s 11.38 and 4.69, which suggests a clear advantage in chance creation. After the break Voluntari score on average 1.14 goals and concede 0.50 (an average of 1.93 points in second halves), while Bihor score 0.77 and concede 0.92 (1.08 points), so the hosts are more likely to maintain or extend their lead.