Vora vs Bylis Ballsh: match statistics

I predict a home win (1). Vora averages 1.06 goals scored and concedes 0.88 per home match, while Bylis Ballsh on the road scores only 0.82 and concedes 1.65. The hosts generate significantly more chances: 4.24 shots on target and 9.94 attempts at home versus Bylis’s 2.18 on target and 7.65 attempts away, and Vora’s home xG is 1.28 compared to the visitors’ 0.99 xG on the road. Bylis, however, carries better recent form (3 wins and 2 draws, averaging 2.2 points per game) versus Vora (2 wins and 3 draws, averaging 1.8 points per game), giving the visitors some momentum. Overall Vora’s defensive advantage (0.88 vs 1.65) and superiority in chance creation lean toward a 1, but Vora’s high home draw rate (41%) indicates this could be a narrow victory.

BTTS indicators favor a Both Teams To Score scenario: season BTTS rate for Vora is 56%, for Bylis 47% (average 51.5%), and in the last 5 matches both teams recorded BTTS at 60% each. Offensively Vora looks stronger — average xG 1.34 and 4.06 shots on target per match versus 0.99 xG and 2.18 shots on target for Bylis, and in the last 5 matches Vora averaged 1.8 goals versus 1.6 for Bylis. Defensively season-long Bylis concedes 1.65 goals per match versus 0.94 for Vora, although Bylis has improved in the last 5 matches conceding only 0.6 goals (3 goals in 5 matches). Clean sheets are not common: Vora has a clean sheet in 22% of matches, Bylis in 24%, which further increases the likelihood of goals from both sides. Considering the season BTTS average (51.5%), the strong 60% signal in the last 5 matches and Vora’s advantage in xG and shots on target, I estimate BTTS at 62% (Yes) versus 38% (No).

The xG-based model projects Vora to score about 1.37 goals (xG_for_home 1.34 vs xG_against_away 1.40 = 1.37) and Bylis about 1.11 goals (xG_for_away 0.99 vs xG_against_home 1.23 = 1.11), totaling 2.48 goals. A Poisson with lambda=2.48 gives the probability of at least 2 goals at ~70.9% (hence Over 1.5 = 71%, Under 29%), supported by seasonal Over1.5 rates: Vora 61% and Bylis 71%. Over 2.5 comes out at ~45% (Under 55%), similar to seasonal Over2.5: Vora 44% and Bylis 41%, so the 2.5 line is less convincing. Over 3.5 has a low probability ~24% (Under 76%), consistent with seasonal 17–18% for this line. Additionally, Vora averages 10.28 shots and 4.06 shots on target per match versus Bylis 7.65 and 2.18, and the model estimates both teams to score at around 50% (in line with seasonal 56%/47%). Therefore I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal.

Analysis of the first half shows both teams frequently draw at the break: the home side draws in 67% of matches and the away side in 59%, yielding an average of about 63% chance of a draw in the first half. Despite this, the home team has a clear advantage in the final outcome — they win 44% of matches versus 12% for the visitors — and more often hold a lead at the break (28% vs 6%). In second halves the home team scores an average of 0.89 goals while the away team scores 0.59, and away teams concede an average of 0.94 goals after the break; additionally the home xG is 1.34 versus 0.99 for the visitors and an average of 4.06 shots on target versus 2.18. Due to the high proportion of draws at half-time and the home advantage in the second half, the strongest signal is a Half-Time/Full-Time draw at the break and a home win (X/1, ~35%); alternatively draw/draw (X/X) I estimate at ~24% and home leading and winning (1/1) at ~23%.