Vora vs Vllaznia Shkodër: match statistics

Vllaznia Shkodër clearly dominates the table and the season: they sit 1st with 17 wins and 39 goals scored, while Vora are 7th with 7 wins and 26 goals. The form gap is evident over the last 5 matches — Vllaznia have 2 wins and 3 draws, scoring 4 and conceding only 1 goal (0.2 goals per game) and averaging 1.8 points per match, whereas Vora have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses, also scoring 4 but conceding 7 goals (1.4 per match) with an average of 1.0 point per match. Situation-quality data indicate an advantage for the visitors: Vllaznia’s away xG is 1.40 versus Vora’s home xG of 1.25, and opponents’ xG is 1.14 vs 1.36, giving the visitors a positive xG balance of +0.26 away compared to Vora’s -0.11 at home. In terms of shot efficiency, Vora at home convert at 10% with on average 4.07 shots on target from 9.47 attempts, while Vllaznia away average 11.67 shots with 3.87 on target and a 7% conversion, but Vora fail to shoot in 47% of home matches and the visitors register no shots in 33% of away games. Considering 17 wins this season, the superior away xG 1.40 vs 1.25 and a markedly better recent defense (1 conceded in 5 matches versus Vora’s 7 conceded), I forecast an away win.

The analysis favors the “no” scenario (no BTTS) — I assign it a 65% probability. Vora averages 1.63 goals scored and only 0.50 conceded per game season-to-date, and has 56% clean sheets at home, with a seasonal BTTS of 38%, indicating opponents often fail to score against them. Vllaznia has a seasonal BTTS of 40%, and in the last 5 matches conceded a total of 1 goal (0.2 avg) and scored 4 goals (0.8 avg), so their defense has been very compact recently. The counterpoint is that Vora has conceded 7 goals in their last 5 matches (1.4 avg) and their recent xG for is 1.12, so the visitors have a real chance to score, but Vora’s high home clean sheet rate (56%) and league-level CS of 67% prevail. As a result I assign 35% to “BTTS - Yes” and 65% to “No Goal” as the most likely scenario.

Total expected goals based on xG: Vora has xG 1.78 and xG conceded to Vllaznia is 1.14, resulting in approximately 1.46 expected goals for the home side; Vllaznia has xG 1.40 and xG conceded to Vora 1.21, giving 1.31 expected goals for the away side, totaling 2.77 expected goals. With λ=2.77, a Poisson distribution yields roughly 76% chance of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5), about 52% for 3+ goals (Over 2.5) and around 30% for 4+ (Over 3.5). Additionally, Vora averages 14.63 shots and 5.19 on target with an 11% conversion, while Vllaznia averages 11.67 shots, 3.87 on target and 7% conversion, which increases the probability of the hosts converting chances. Historical data shows Over 2.5 occurs less frequently: Vora 31% and Vllaznia 20% (league 34%), and BTTS is 38%/40%, giving a moderate chance for both teams to score. Based on this, the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (I play Over at the 1.5 line) with an estimated edge of 76%, while Over 2.5 is only slightly favored (~52%) and Over 3.5 I reject (~30%).

Vora has a clear advantage already in the first half: they led at the break in 12 matches, i.e. in 75% of games, while Vllaznia only in 4 matches (27%). Half-time goal metrics confirm this – Vora scores on average 1.00 goal by half-time and concedes 0.25, whereas Vllaznia has 0.33 scored and 0.27 conceded in the first 45 minutes. Over the full match the home side average 1.63 goals scored and 0.50 conceded, while the visitors have 0.87 scored and 0.87 conceded; additionally Vora registers 2.56 points per home game with an 81% win rate versus 1.20 points and a 27% win rate for Vllaznia. Chance quality also favors the hosts: Vora’s xG is 1.78 versus Vllaznia’s 1.40, shots on target 5.19 vs 3.87 and a higher shot conversion rate 11% vs 7%, so I expect the lead at the break to hold through to the end. On this basis I assign the highest probability to the scenario of Vora leading at half-time and the hosts winning after 90 minutes (HT/FT 1/1 – 64%), with alternatives mainly being a half-time draw and a home win after the match (X/1 – 18%) or a draw after 90 minutes (X/X – 6%).