Wadi Degla vs Al Mokawloon: match statistics

Wadi Degla are slight favorites thanks to a very solid home defensive record: they have conceded no goals in two home matches, while their average xG conceded is just 0.97. At the same time, the hosts have drawn both games at their own stadium and have failed to score on either occasion, despite maintaining 65% possession and creating chances worth an average of 1.37 xG. Al Mokawloon register more shots on target away from home—an average of 4.5 compared with the hosts’ 2.5—but score just 0.5 goals per away match and failed to find the net in 50% of their away fixtures. The visitors are also more susceptible to pressure, conceding an average of 1.63 xG, although their last two away matches produced a defeat and a victory, adding further uncertainty. With similar form over the last five rounds—1.6 points per match for Wadi Degla and 1.4 for Al Mokawloon—a low-scoring draw is the most likely outcome.

BTTS - No is the stronger scenario, as Al Mokawloon average only 0.5 goals in away matches and fail to score in 50% of their games. The hosts have not kept a clean sheet yet, but their current defensive performance looks stronger: they have conceded 0.6 goals per match across their last 5 games, while their opponents’ average xG stands at 1.05. Wadi Degla also lack a particularly convincing attack, with a season xG of just 0.82, despite this figure rising to 1.35 over their last five appearances. The Egyptian league tends to produce lower-scoring results: BTTS lands in 40% of matches, while as many as 73% of games end with at least one team keeping a clean sheet. Although the recent BTTS rates are 40% for Wadi Degla and 60% for Al Mokawloon, the visitors’ limited finishing ability and the league profile give the edge to the outcome in which at least one team fails to score.

The 2.25-goal line is close to the low league average of 2.05 goals per match. In their last five games, Wadi Degla conceded just 0.6 goals per match, while Al Mokawloon averaged 1.4 goals scored, limiting the prospects of a high-scoring game. The hosts have recently created chances worth 1.35 xG, but the visitors’ defense has allowed an average of 1.43 xG, so I rate their attacking potential at only slightly above one goal. For Al Mokawloon, their average of 1.21 xG over the last five matches is up against a home defense allowing 1.05 xG. Both teams had more than 2.5 goals in only 40% of their last five matches, while the visitors have not exceeded 3.5 goals in any game this season, making Under 3.5 the clearest value angle.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Wadi Degla win, as the hosts have been level at the break in each of their last five matches, conceding an average of just 0.2 goals during that period. Al Mokawloon can impose the tempo early, having averaged 1.0 goal before half-time across their last five matches, but the hosts have also kept a clean sheet before the break in 80% of those appearances. After the interval, the advantage shifts to Wadi Degla: they score an average of 1.0 goal and concede 0.4, while Al Mokawloon score just 0.4 and allow 1.0. The hosts’ form is also more consistent, with 1.6 points per match and only 20% defeats in their last five league games, compared with 1.4 points and a 40% defeat rate for their opponents. The low average xG figures of 0.82 for the hosts and 1.20 for the visitors reduce the likelihood of a high-scoring outcome, making a cautious first 45 minutes followed by a Wadi Degla turnaround after the break the most realistic scenario.