Wadi Degla vs Kahraba Ismailia: match statistics

Wadi Degla is in significantly better form: in the last 5 matches they have 4 wins and 1 draw (PPG 2.6), scoring 9 and conceding only 1, while Kahraba Ismailia in their last 5 have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses (PPG 1), scoring 6 and conceding 9. This season the home side have 11 wins and 32 goals scored versus Kahraba’s 5 wins and 29 goals, but the visitors have conceded as many as 47 goals across the season compared to 21 for Wadi, which clearly highlights the hosts’ defensive superiority. At home Wadi averages 11.64 shots with 3.79 on target and 56% possession, translating to 1.29 goals per game and xG 1.35; Kahraba away average 8.64 shots with 3.27 on target, 44% possession, 1.18 goals per game and xG 1.11. Although the visitors have higher shot conversion (14% vs 11%), their defense is more unreliable — they concede 1.18 goals on average away and have let in 9 goals in the last 5 matches, while clean sheets occur in 27% of their away games versus 36% for the hosts. Based on superior possession, greater shot volume and higher xG (1.35 vs 1.11) and significantly better recent form, I expect a Wadi Degla victory.

Wadi Degla has a seasonal BTTS rate of 81% versus Kahraba Ismailia's 55%, with Kahraba at BTTS 100% in the last 5 matches while Wadi Degla is only 20% in that period. Attacking xG is 1.18 for the home side versus 1.11 for the visitors, and xG against is 1.59 vs 1.53, indicating both teams create a similar number of scoring chances. In the last 5 fixtures Wadi Degla averages 1.8 goals scored and concedes 0.2, whereas Kahraba records 1.2 scored and 1.8 conceded, meaning the visitors are more prone to conceding. Season-long figures reinforce this: Wadi Degla 32 goals for and 21 against, Kahraba 29 for and as many as 47 against, pointing to a weaker Kahraba defense. Overall, considering the home 81% BTTS, the visitors' 100% BTTS in the last 5, and comparable xG and shots on target (3.19 vs 3.27), the stronger signal is BTTS - Yes.

Expected xG are 1.18 for Wadi Degla and 1.11 for Kahraba Ismailia, totaling 2.29 goals per match. Based on the modelled distribution, the probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5) is around 67% (P(>=2)≈66.7%), for at least 3 goals (Over 2.5) about 40%, and for 4+ goals (Over 3.5) about 20%. Seasonal metrics support Over 1.5 — Wadi Degla has 81% of matches over 1.5 and Kahraba 73% — while both teams also show high BTTS rates: 81% for Wadi Degla and 55% for Kahraba, which increases the likelihood of a minimum of two goals. Although Wadi Degla has 63% of matches over 2.5 and Kahraba 45%, with a combined xG=2.29 the distribution implies a lower chance of 3+ goals (~40%), warranting caution on the 2.5 line. The strongest signal is Over 1.5 (67%), therefore I recommend backing the Over side at 1.5 as the most probable outcome with the best risk-reward profile.

Seasonal data show Wadi Degla scores on average 1.00 goals per match and concedes 2.13, while Kahraba Ismailia averages 1.18 goals scored and 1.18 conceded; the visitors have a higher points-per-game average (1.64) versus the hosts (0.31) and 45% away wins compared to 0% home wins for Wadi Degla. Draws at Half-Time are most common: hosts are level at the break in 50% of matches, visitors in 55%, and the lead at the break is more often held by the away side (27%) than the home side (13%). Wadi Degla’s issues emerge after the break — they concede on average 1.56 goals in second halves and have a negative second-half goal difference (-13), whereas the visitors won second halves in 36% of matches and have a neutral second-half goal difference (0). Additionally, both-teams-to-score by HT is rare (around 13% and 9%), but full-match BTTS occurs frequently (81% for hosts, 55% for visitors), indicating decisive action after the break. Consequently the strongest signal is a draw at Half-Time and a visitor turnaround for the Full-Time result (X/2): the high HT draw frequency of 50–55% and Wadi Degla’s pronounced tendency to concede after the break (1.56 conceded) make this scenario the most likely.