Warta Poznań vs Puszcza Niepołomice: match statistics

Warta Poznań have looked very solid at home: they have won 100% of their matches so far, averaging 3 goals scored and conceding none per game. The hosts also create chances worth 1.83 xG while allowing opponents just 0.61 xG, and their 18 shots per match clearly exceed Puszcza’s attacking output. Puszcza Niepołomice have lost both away games, averaging 0 goals scored on the road and failing to find the net on either occasion, despite maintaining 53% possession. The visitors concede an average of 2 goals away from home, have not kept a clean sheet and record just 1.5 shots on target per match. Both teams have won 2 of their last 5 matches overall, but Warta’s significantly stronger home statistics point to a home victory.

The strongest signal is Puszcza’s very poor finishing: away from home, they average 0.0 goals, have failed to score in 100% of such matches, and their BTTS rate stands at 0%. Warta are also not a team that regularly plays in matches where both sides score, with their seasonal BTTS rate at just 40%, compared with the league average of 56%. Over their last five matches, BTTS occurred in 40% of Warta’s games and just 20% of Puszcza’s, despite both teams conceding 1.2 goals per match during this period. Puszcza do create chances worth 1.51 xG, but convert them exceptionally poorly, recording only 1.5 shots on target per match and a 0% shooting efficiency. Warta should have opportunities to score against an away defense conceding an average of 2.0 goals, but the more likely scenario is that at least one team—Puszcza in particular—fails to find the net. Therefore, the recommended market is BTTS - No: it means that at least one team will not score, and does not automatically imply a 0:0 result or that neither team will score.

Warta average 1.2 goals at home, while Puszcza are yet to score away from home and have failed to find the net in 100% of such matches. The hosts allow their opponents an average of 1.0 goal, whereas Puszcza, despite a high xG of 1.51 per match, manage only 1.5 shots on target and have failed to convert this into goals. Across the season, fewer than 3.5 goals were scored in 80% of Warta’s matches and 100% of Puszcza’s away fixtures, with neither team recording a match featuring at least 4 goals. The last five matches have produced an average total of 2.4 goals in each team’s games, but the visitors’ low attacking output clearly limits the risk of a high-scoring game. The strongest signal therefore remains Under 3.5, as a scenario involving four or more goals would require a clear departure from both teams’ established profiles.

Warta have a clear advantage in the home data: they score an average of 1.2 goals, while Puszcza have yet to score away from home and have lost 100% of their matches. The first-half signal is particularly strong, as the hosts were leading at the break in 2 of their 5 matches, whereas the visitors were behind after 45 minutes in both of their away games. Warta score an average of 0.8 goals before half-time, while Puszcza concede as many as 2.0 goals per match in this period. Although the visitors’ xG stands at 1.51 compared with Warta’s 1.31, Puszcza convert 0% of their chances into goals and record only 1.5 shots on target per match, compared with 4.2 for the hosts. The most likely outcome therefore remains Warta leading at half-time and maintaining their winning result through to full-time.