Warta Sieradz vs Mazovia Mińsk Mazowiecki: match statistics

Mazovia Mińsk Mazowiecki have won 3 of their last 5 matches, compared with 2 wins for Warta Sieradz, while the visitors scored 13 goals in that period to the hosts’ 9. Away from home, Mazovia have won 75% of their matches and scored an average of 2.75 goals, whereas Warta have won 20% of their home games and conceded an average of 2.2 goals. The visitors hit the target more often away from home than the hosts do on their own ground (8.5 versus 6.4 shots on target per match), although the difference in the quality of chances created is slight: 2.04 versus 1.97 xG. Warta can pose a threat, as Mazovia concede an average of 1.5 goals away from home and have yet to keep a clean sheet there. However, the visitors’ attacking efficiency and the hosts’ weaker defense point to a Mazovia win.

BTTS - Yes has landed in 67% of Warta Sieradz's matches and 100% of Mazovia Mińsk Mazowiecki's fixtures, compared with a league average of 70%. Warta score an average of 2.5 goals per match, while Mazovia average 2.75, so both teams regularly find the net. They also concede 1.83 and 1.5 goals per match respectively, and Mazovia have yet to keep a clean sheet. Across their last five matches, both teams scored in 80% of Warta's games and 60% of Mazovia's, further supporting the likelihood of goals at both ends. There is a risk that one team fails to score, but average attacking xG of 2.19 for Warta and 2.04 for Mazovia points towards BTTS - Yes.

Both teams have gone Over 1.5 goals in 100% of their matches to date, making Over 1.5 the strongest signal. Warta score an average of 2.5 goals and concede 1.83, while Mazovia score 2.75 and concede 1.5, pointing to goal-scoring potential at both ends. This is supported by their attacking xG averages: 2.19 for Warta and 2.04 for Mazovia. Higher lines are also likely to be reached—Over 2.5 goals landed in 83% of Warta’s matches and 100% of Mazovia’s—but carry more risk than the selected Over 1.5. The 4.30-goal forecast reflects both teams’ attacking statistics without assuming they will maintain such a high scoring rate in every match.

The strongest signal points to Mazovia leading at the break and holding on to that advantage until the end: in its away matches so far, it has scored an average of 2.0 goals before half-time, while Warta has averaged 0.67 first-half goals at home and has been trailing at the break in 50% of its matches. The visitors have won 75% of their away matches and have not lost any, while the hosts have won 50% of their home games. Recent second-half form also supports Mazovia holding its lead: it has averaged 2.0 goals in that period, while Warta has conceded 1.4. One important caveat is that Warta led at half-time in 60% of its last five matches, so scenarios in which it takes the lead also have a notable share in the forecast. Even so, Mazovia’s away first-half scoring prowess combined with its strong second halves makes 2/2 the most likely individual HT/FT outcome.