Waterford vs Dundalk: match statistics

Dundalk holds the offensive edge: 23 goals this season and 8 goals in the last 5 matches versus Waterford’s 9 goals and 3 in the last 5; visitors average 1.29 goals away with 16.14 shots and 5.86 shots on target per away match, while hosts average 0.5 goals per home match with 9.33 shots and 2.67 on target. The quality-of-chances gap is confirmed by xG — Dundalk has 1.79 xG away compared to the hosts’ 1.07 xG, indicating more high-value opportunities for the visitors. However, Waterford are yet to win at home (0 wins, 67% draws) and concede only 1.0 goal per home match on average, whereas Dundalk concede 2.0 goals away on average and have 0% clean sheets on the road. Over the last five matches Dundalk average 1.4 points per game and Waterford only 0.6, giving a slight edge to the visitors, but the hosts have 50% of home games without scoring versus 29% of such away games for Dundalk. Considering the visitors’ offensive superiority (more goals, shots and higher xG), but also Waterford’s defensive stability at home and frequent home draws, the most likely outcome is a draw, with a significant chance of a Dundalk win.

The BTTS signal is clear: season BTTS rates are 57% for Waterford and 71% for Dundalk, averaging around 64% which is above the league level of 54%. In the last 5 matches BTTS was 60% for the home side and 80% for the away side, and Dundalk scored 8 goals (1.6 per match) versus 3 goals (0.6 per match) for Waterford, showing greater short-term scoring efficiency from the visitors. xG metrics confirm offensive potential on both sides: season xG is 1.93 for Waterford and 1.79 for Dundalk, with xG against of 1.41 and 1.67 respectively, meaning both teams create chances and are vulnerable to conceding. Additionally, Dundalk has 0% clean sheets seasonally and concedes on average 2.0 goals per match for the season, while in the last 5 matches average goals conceded are 1.2 (Waterford) and 1.6 (Dundalk), which increases the likelihood that both teams will find the net. Considering all the above figures (BTTS 57%/71%, last 5: 60%/80%, xG ~1.9/1.8 and average goals conceded >1.0), I recommend BTTS - Yes with an estimated probability of 75%.

Calculated xG gives 1.80 for Waterford and 1.60 for Dundalk, totaling 3.40 expected goals. Season-to-date the percentage of matches over 1.5 is 86% for Waterford and 100% for Dundalk, and the percentage of matches with both teams scoring is 57% and 71% respectively, which strongly supports an Over signal. Seasonally both teams have 57% of matches over 2.5 (league average 46%), and in the last 5 fixtures Dundalk had 80% such matches, so Over 2.5 has a moderate edge. The projected 3.40 is clearly above the 1.5 and 2.5 thresholds but slightly below 3.5, therefore the clearest signal is Over 1.5. Based on this I recommend an Over 1.5 bet as the strongest selection, while Over 2.5 also looks likely (but less certain), and Over 3.5 remains risky.

Waterford have a clear home advantage: seasonally they average 2.0 goals at home and 2.0 points per home match with a 57% home win rate, whereas Dundalk have only a 14% away win rate and concede 2.0 goals per away match. The edge is supported by xG and shot effectiveness – Waterford’s xG is 1.93 versus Dundalk’s 1.79, on average 7.0 shots on target for the home side compared to 5.86 for the visitors and a conversion rate of 12% vs 8%. At half-time this often produces low-scoring first halves: Waterford average 0.71 goals by HT, Dundalk 0.57; the home side have kept a HT clean sheet in 71% of matches and had HT draws in 43% of games, so a draw at the break is realistic. The second half will be key – Waterford score 1.29 goals on average after the break, have won 56% of second halves and average 2.14 points gained in second halves, while Dundalk concede 1.29 goals after the break and lose 71% of second halves; additionally Waterford scored 8 goals in 76–90 minutes and Dundalk conceded 5 goals in 46–60 minutes. Therefore the strongest scenario is a half-time draw and a home win at full-time (X/1) with the highest assigned probability of 32%, with 1/1 (26%) and X/X (18%) as the next most realistic options.