Watford vs Charlton Athletic: match statistics

Although Watford sit 20th and Charlton Athletic 12th, the home and away statistics give the hosts a slight edge. Watford create chances at home worth an average xG of 1.45, while Charlton average 0.85 away from home; the hosts also record more shots on target per game: 4.2 compared with 3. Charlton’s defense concedes an average xG of 2.29 away from home and lets in 2.25 goals, giving Watford a chance to get back on track after scoring just 3 goals in their last 5 matches. Both teams have taken only 3 points from their last 5 games, so recent form offers neither side a clear advantage. The risk remains considerable, as Watford have lost 4 of those 5 matches and concede an average of 1.8 goals at home. However, Charlton’s weakness away from home supports backing the hosts.

The strongest case for BTTS - No is Watford’s defensive record at home: they concede an average of 0.4 goals and keep a clean sheet in 60% of matches. Charlton score an average of 1.0 goals away from home, but have managed just 0.4 goals per match across their last five fixtures, increasing the risk that they fail to score this time. On the other hand, the visitors concede an average of 2.25 goals away from home and have yet to keep a clean sheet on the road, so a Watford goal is a realistic possibility. Although the season-long rate of matches in which both teams score stands at 40% for Watford and 75% for Charlton, it has fallen to 40% for both teams across their last five matches. A goal from only one side is therefore more likely. BTTS - No means that at least one team does not score; it does not necessarily mean a 0-0 draw.

The strongest pick is Under 3.5 goals: all of Watford’s home matches so far have finished below this line, while this has been the case in 50% of Charlton’s away matches. Charlton concede an average of 2.25 goals away from home and allow opponents chances worth 2.29 xG, giving Watford a chance to score despite averaging just 0.8 goals at home. On the other hand, the hosts concede only 0.4 goals per home match and keep a clean sheet in 60% of games, which limits Charlton’s projected output. Across their last five matches, the teams have averaged 0.6 and 0.4 goals scored respectively, so even with the visitors’ weaker defense, the projected total of 2.35 goals points more clearly to Under 3.5 than Under 2.5.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome, as Watford were level at the break in 4 of their 5 home matches and scored an average of just 0.2 goals before half-time in those games. However, Charlton concede an average of 1.5 goals in the first half away from home, so a Watford lead at the break cannot be ruled out. Watford’s home record in second halves supports a home win after the interval: they score an average of 0.6 goals and have conceded none, compared with Charlton’s average of 0.75 goals conceded in second halves on the road. Across full matches, Charlton concede an average of 2.25 goals away from home, while their opponents create chances worth an average of 2.29 xG, increasing the home side’s chances of settling the match after half-time. The X/1 HT/FT pick nevertheless carries some risk, as Watford have been trailing at half-time in each of their last 5 matches overall; their advantage in this scenario is therefore moderate.