Wattens vs Hartberg: match statistics

Both teams have won 3 of their last 5 matches and scored 10 and 9 goals respectively during that period, so the difference in overall form is marginal. However, Wattens have been very poor at home: they have not won a single match there, averaging just 0.5 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game. Hartberg average 1.0 goals scored away from home and, with an identical average of 3 shots on target per match, have a significantly better finishing efficiency—13% compared with the hosts’ 5%. The visitors’ defense does allow opponents a high xG of 2.89, but Wattens generate only 1.11 xG at home and have failed to score in 50% of such matches. The visitors’ advantage is further reinforced by their away record: a 50% win rate and only 1 goal conceded on average, while the hosts have lost half of their home matches and have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of them.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, as Wattens had both teams scoring in only 33% of their season matches and just 20% of their last 5 games, compared with the league average of 50%. Hartberg recorded BTTS in 50% of their season matches, but the rate stands at 40% over their last 5 appearances, so they likewise provide no clear support for a Goal/Goal scenario. The hosts failed to score in 67% of their season matches, while the visitors did so in 50%, indicating a high risk that at least one team will once again draw a blank. Hartberg's attack generates just 0.91 xG and 8.0 shots per match on average, while Wattens, despite their opponent's weak defense, have a season average of only 1.0 goal. Neither side has kept a clean sheet yet, but their limited scoring consistency and low historical BTTS rates slightly favor a result in which at least one team fails to score.

Wattens and Hartberg have yet to keep a clean sheet this season, while the hosts concede an average of 2.0 goals per match. In their last five games, Wattens scored an average of 2.0 goals and Hartberg 1.8, with the total goals average for both teams standing at 3.2 and 3.2, respectively. Their attacking potential is supported by the xG figures from the last five matches: 1.45 for the hosts and 1.58 for the visitors, while Hartberg allows opponents as much as 2.89 xG on average away from home. The Over 2.5 line has moderate support, as over 2.5 goals were scored in 80% of Wattens’ last five matches and 60% of Hartberg’s, but the safest signal remains Over 1.5. This pick is further supported by the fact that all previous matches involving both teams went over 0.5 goals, while Wattens had over 1.5 goals in 100% of their league matches this season.

Hartberg shows the stronger first-half signal: in their last five matches, they were leading at the break in 60% of games, scoring an average of 1.4 goals and conceding just 0.4. Over the same period, Wattens scored 0.8 goals before half-time, while their first-half goal difference stood at only +1, compared with +5 for the visitors. Across the season, the hosts concede an average of 2.0 goals per match, whereas Hartberg average 1.5 points per game compared with Wattens’ 1.0. The hosts may recover some ground after the break, having scored 1.2 goals per match across their last five second halves, but Hartberg have also won 60% of their recent matches. The most likely scenario therefore remains an HT/FT outcome in which the visitors take the lead at the break and hold on to it until full-time.