Werder Bremen vs Augsburg: match statistics

Werder Bremen holds a clear advantage in chance quality and defensive control: home average xG is 1.72 versus Augsburg’s 1.41 xG on the road, while Werder concedes only 1.25 xG at home compared to the 1.72 xG Augsburg concedes away. In practice the hosts score 1.20 goals per home match, while visitors score 1.13 goals on the road; in the last 5 matches Werder scored 7 and conceded 7, whereas Augsburg scored 8 but conceded 10, indicating greater defensive instability for the visitors. Werder averages 15.87 shots and 4.87 on target per home match with a conversion around 8%, Augsburg averages 13.27 shots and 4.2 on target away with conversion around 9% — so guests are slightly more efficient from fewer chances. Form trend also favors Werder: hosts have 1.4 points per match in the last 5 versus Augsburg’s 1.2, and additionally Werder has 20% clean sheets at home while Augsburg has 0% clean sheets away and loses 60% of away matches. Given the superior xG (1.72 vs 1.41), lower xG conceded (1.25 vs 1.72) and more stable defense, I predict a home win (1) with probabilities: 55% home, 25% draw, 20% away.

Seasonal indicators for both teams point to frequent BTTS - Yes outcomes: Werder have 56% of matches with both teams scoring, Augsburg 67%, versus a league average of 61%. In the last five games the trend is even stronger — Werder had BTTS in 80% of matches, Augsburg in all 5 matches (100%), producing a short-term average of 90%. Both sides create and concede goals: this season Werder scored 36 and conceded 54, Augsburg scored 39 and conceded 55; in the last 5 matches they averaged 1.4 and 1.6 goals scored respectively, and conceded 1.4 and 2.0. xG metrics confirm offensive intent and susceptibility to goals — average attacking xG is 1.47 for Werder and 1.41 for Augsburg, while xG conceded is 1.54 and 1.72, indicating plenty of chances for both sides. Additionally, Augsburg have recorded zero clean sheets this season (0%), Werder have 31% clean sheets, and matches with over 2.5 goals stand at 50% and 67% (combined over 2.5 & BTTS: 44% and 53%), therefore I favor a BTTS - Yes bet and estimate 80% for Yes and 20% for No.

The model forecasts total xG of 3.08 (Werder attack xG 1.47 and xG conceded to Augsburg 1.72 yield a 1.60 projection for the home side; similarly Augsburg attack xG 1.41 and xG conceded to Werder 1.54 yield 1.48 for the away side). Seasonal stats show Werder had over 1.5 in 75% of matches, Augsburg in 93%, and with a league average of 3.2 goals per game this strongly favors over 1.5. For the 2.5 line, the home side records over 2.5 in 50% of matches, the away side in 67%, and in the last 5 matches of both teams over 2.5 occurred in 60% — therefore I assess Over 2.5 as likely (~68%). The 3.5 line is less certain: Werder over 3.5 in 44% of matches, Augsburg in 27%, and the projected 3.08 goals gives a moderate probability (~34%) of exceeding 3.5. Additionally, the share of matches where both teams scored is 56% (Werder) and 67% (Augsburg), average shots on target are 4.75 vs 4.2, and shot conversion is 11% vs 9%, which further supports the recommendation of Over 1.5.

A half-time draw looks the most likely: the home side were level at the break in 44% of matches and the visitors in 40%, while the hosts led at half-time in only 4 fixtures (25%). Werder has a clear advantage in the second half – they score on average 0.88 goals after the break versus Augsburg’s 0.53 and collect more points in second halves (ppg 1.5 vs 0.73). Both teams’ xG are similar (1.47 vs 1.41), but Augsburg’s xG against is worse (1.72 vs 1.54), suggesting a higher risk of conceding. Additionally, the away side concedes the most goals in the 76–90 minute period (6 goals), which increases the chance of a turnout by Werder after the break; therefore I assign the highest probability to the scenario of a half-time draw and a home win (X/1 20%).