Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig: match statistics

RB Leipzig are the favorites: they sit 4th in the table and have scored 53 goals this season versus Werder’s 14th place and 30 goals. Both teams have similar average possession (53%) and shots on target (4.54 for RB Leipzig vs 4.46 for Werder), but Werder at home have a higher xG (1.69) than RB Leipzig away (1.57), indicating the hosts create chances but convert them to just 1.08 goals per game with a 7% conversion rate. RB Leipzig are, however, more efficient in attack (1.46 goals away and 10% conversion) and defend more solidly (conceding on average 1.31 goals away vs Werder’s 1.77 at home; 35 vs 47 goals conceded this season). In the last 5 matches the visitors have scored 11 goals and average 2.0 points per game, the hosts 8 goals and 1.8 points per game, with an equal goals‑conceded tally (5). Given higher efficiency, lower average concessions and their superior league position, I predict an RB Leipzig win, with an approximate probability distribution of 55% for the visitors, 25% for a draw and 20% for the hosts.

The "Both Teams To Score" scenario looks more likely: Werder has a season BTTS rate of 64% versus RB Leipzig's 46%, with the league average BTTS at 57%, favoring matches with both teams scoring. Werder averages 2.43 goals scored per game (xG 1.94) and concedes 1.29, while RB scores 1.46 (xG 1.57) and concedes 1.31 — both sides generate xG above ~1.3 and have realistic chances to score. In the last 5 matches RB has a 60% BTTS rate and scored 11 goals (2.2 avg), while Werder has a 40% BTTS and scored 8 goals (1.6 avg), highlighting RB's recent attacking form, and Werder has not had a match without scoring this season (0% matches without a goal). Additionally 79% of Werder's games are over 2.5 goals this season, versus 54% for RB, with a league average of 3.19 goals per game, which reinforces the likelihood of goal exchanges; therefore I recommend BTTS - Yes with a probability of 68% versus 32% for No.

xG and league statistics indicate a high-scoring game: Werder has xG 1.94 at home, while RB Leipzig’s defense concedes xG 1.34, yielding an estimated 1.64 goals for the home side; RB Leipzig generates xG 1.57 and Werder’s defense concedes xG 1.32, giving about 1.45 away goals, for a total of 3.09 expected goals. Seasonal metrics confirm this trend — Werder records over 1.5 in 100% of matches, RB Leipzig in 69%, and over 2.5 occurs for hosts in 79% and for guests in 54% (league average 62%), which increases the likelihood of more than 1.5 goals. Additionally, Werder averages 7.0 shots on target versus RB Leipzig’s 4.54 and has a home scoring average of 2.43 compared to the away side’s 1.46, which raises the probability of goals. In the last 5 matches hosts averaged 1.6 goals, guests 2.2 (3.8 combined), and the percentage of games with both teams scoring is 64% and 46% respectively, so the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (approximately 81% chance).

Statistical analysis indicates a clear advantage for Werder: the hosts led at the break in 7 of their season matches (50%), scoring an average of 1.14 goals by half-time and conceding only 0.36, while RB Leipzig led at the break in only 4 matches (31%) and averages 0.77 goals by half-time. Over full matches Werder scores 2.43 goals on average versus RB’s 1.46, the hosts’ xG is 1.94 compared to 1.57, and shots on target are 7.0 versus 4.54 with conversion rates of 14% vs 10%, which demonstrates better chance creation and efficiency from the hosts. There is, however, a short-term caveat: in the last 5 matches RB have had superior half-time numbers (last 5: RB averaged 1.4 goals at half-time vs Werder 0.4) and led in 40% of those games, so a small chance of a draw or an early lead for the visitors exists. Werder also scores an average of 1.29 second-half goals versus RB’s 0.69, which increases the likelihood of maintaining or extending a lead after the break; therefore the strongest signal from the data is Werder leading at half-time and winning the match (1/1).