Weymouth vs Dorchester Town: match statistics

Weymouth holds a clear form advantage: in the last 5 matches they are 4-0-1, scoring 12 goals (2.4 per game) and conceding 2. Dorchester are in crisis — over their last 5 they have 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses, scoring 7 goals (1.4 per game) and conceding 13 (2.6 per game); their points-per-game in this period is 0.2 versus Weymouth’s 2.4. At home Weymouth averages 1.21 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per match, while Dorchester away averages 1.11 scored and 1.63 conceded, giving the hosts an approximate defensive edge of 0.42 goals per game. Away, the visitors average 7.63 shots and 4.38 shots on target per match with an 18% conversion rate — they can create chances, but this does not offset their defensive frailties. Weymouth actually has a higher share of home matches without scoring (37%) than Dorchester do away (21%), but the last 5 matches show the hosts are capable of breaking that drought. Both teams have 48 goals scored this season, yet Dorchester have conceded 70 compared to Weymouth’s 64, which further supports a home victory.

Both teams have high seasonal BTTS rates: Weymouth 68% and Dorchester 63%, versus a league average of 60%, indicating a season-long tendency toward Goal/Goal matches. Over the season Weymouth scored 48 and conceded 64 (avg 1.42 scored, 2.05 conceded), while Dorchester scored 48 and conceded 70 (1.11 scored, 1.63 conceded), so both sides historically allow a lot of goals. The last 5 matches, however, show a form divergence: Weymouth has only 20% BTTS in the last 5 with averages of 2.4 scored and 0.4 conceded, whereas Dorchester has 100% BTTS in the last 5, averaging 1.4 scored and 2.6 conceded (13 conceded total). Additionally, available xG for Dorchester is 1.07 scored vs 1.33 conceded, confirming chance creation and concession; combined with the league average of 3.14 goals I project a BTTS - Yes scenario with a 70% probability versus 30% for No Goal.

Season statistics indicate a high share of matches with at least 2 goals: Weymouth has 84% of games over 1.5 goals, and Dorchester 79%. The league averages 3.14 goals per match, and season over 2.5 figures are 63% for home teams and 53% for away teams, further supporting a higher-scoring scenario. Last 5 form is strongly tilted toward goals — Weymouth scores 2.4 and concedes 0.4 on average, while Dorchester scores 1.4 and concedes 2.6, which increases the expected number of goal events. The model projects 1.85 xG for Weymouth and 1.40 xG for Dorchester (total 3.25), so the strongest signal is Over 1.5. Over 2.5 also has solid backing (model probability 68%) due to recent results (last5 Over 2.5: 60% home, 80% away), whereas Over 3.5 is less certain (model probability 43%), since only the home side has a season rate of 53% for that line.

I project a 1/1 scenario: Weymouth lead at the break and ultimately win the match. In their last 5 matches Weymouth have won 4 of 5 (80%), led at half-time in 80% and in those games averaged 1.4 first-half goals while keeping a clean sheet before the break. Seasonally both teams share an identical first-half goals average of 0.53, however Weymouth concede on average 1.00 goal by half-time versus 0.68 conceded by Dorchester, so Dorchester is marginally stronger defensively before the break, yet the hosts’ recent form offsets that difference. After half-time Weymouth’s advantage is clear: in the last 5 matches they averaged 2.4 goals scored and 0.4 conceded, whereas Dorchester average 1.4 scored and 2.6 conceded, which supports a final victory for the hosts. Therefore I assign a 50% probability to 1/1, with alternatives X/1 (15%) and X/X (10%) given the 37% rate of half-time draws between the sides and seasonal first-half averages of 1.53 (hosts) vs 1.21 (guests).