Wigry Suwałki vs Polonia Lidzbark Warm.: match statistics

Wigry Suwałki remain unbeaten this season, recording 3 wins and 3 draws, while Polonia Lidzbark Warmiński have failed to win any of their 6 matches and have suffered 4 defeats. The hosts’ advantage is particularly evident at home: they have won 67% of their matches, have yet to concede a goal there, and their opponents have averaged just 0.70 xG against them. Polonia have lost every away match so far, conceding as many as 4 goals per game on average and keeping no clean sheets. The visitors are capable of creating chances, as shown by their average of 1.42 xG and 1.5 goals away from home, but their defense allows opponents to generate 1.74 xG. Given Polonia’s ongoing five-match winless run and Wigry’s record of 2 wins, 2 draws and just one defeat during the same period, a home win is the most likely outcome.

The signal for both teams to score is very strong, as both Wigry Suwałki and Polonia Lidzbark Warm. have recorded BTTS in 100% of their matches so far this season, compared with a league average of 70%. Neither side has kept a clean sheet yet, while the hosts concede an average of 2.0 goals and the visitors as many as 4.0. Polonia score an average of 1.5 goals and register 4.0 shots on target per match, which should be enough against a Wigry defense allowing opponents an xG of 2.41. The hosts have a lower average xG of 1.15, but Polonia have conceded 2.8 goals per match in their last five fixtures, meaning their goal is also clearly under threat. Even based on current form, BTTS has landed in 60% of Wigry’s matches and 100% of Polonia’s, making a goal for both sides the most likely scenario.

The case for at least two goals is supported by the fact that both teams have exceeded this line in 100% of their league matches so far. Polonia concede an average of as many as 4.0 goals per away game, and have still allowed 2.8 goals per match across their last five outings, which clearly increases Wigry’s attacking potential. In their last five matches, the hosts created chances worth an average of 1.60 xG, while their opponents have yet to keep a single clean sheet this season. Polonia also regularly find the net: they have scored in every match this season, and both teams scored in 100% of their games. The projected total of 2.95 goals also supports Over 2.5, but Over 1.5 is clearly the safest choice given the consistently high frequency of this line.

Wigry have been clearly more stable over their last five matches: they have won 40%, drawn 40% and lost only 20%, while Polonia have failed to win any of their games in this period and have lost 60% of them. The strongest argument in favor of the home side is Polonia’s defense, which has conceded an average of 2.8 goals in their last five matches and as many as 4.0 goals per game across the season. The visitors have started particularly poorly, as they were behind at half-time in 100% of their last five matches, conceding an average of 2.0 goals before the break compared with just 0.5 scored. Wigry are not a team that typically dominates from the first whistle either, but Polonia have failed to keep a clean sheet on every occasion, increasing the home side’s chances of taking the lead. After the break, Wigry have conceded only 0.4 goals per game on average in their last five matches, making a HT/FT scenario of the home side leading at the break and maintaining their winning advantage the most likely outcome.