Wigry Suwałki vs Swit: match statistics

Wigry Suwałki are clear favorites: at home they score an average of 2.19 goals per game and have a +20 goal difference, while Swit manages only 1.13 goals on the road and has -19 in away goal difference. Defensively the hosts perform significantly better — they concede only 0.94 goals at home versus Swit’s 2.31 conceded away, and Wigry’s clean sheet rate is 44% compared to the visitors’ 25%. In terms of chance quality Wigry record an average xG of 1.76 and 5.44 shots on target per home game with a 17% conversion, whereas Swit has xG 1.23, 3.3 shots on target and a 10% conversion — the hosts create and convert more opportunities. Recent form over the last 5 matches also favors the hosts: Wigry have won 4 of 5 (12 scored, 4 conceded) and average 2.4 pts per game in that span, while Swit have 2 wins, a 9–11 goal record and 1.2 pts per game. Considering Wigry’s 69% home win rate, their low 6% rate of matches without scoring, and the advantage in xG and shots on target, I predict a home win.

The "BTTS - Yes" scenario appears more likely: Wigry have a season BTTS rate of 65% and Świt 50%, versus a league average of 62%, indicating frequent matches with goals at both ends. In the last 5 fixtures both teams recorded BTTS in 60%; Wigry averaged 2.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded, while Świt averaged 1.8 scored and 2.2 conceded, highlighting clear defensive issues for Świt. xG stats show 1.31 xG for Wigry and 1.23 xG for Świt with 4.0 vs 3.3 shots on target and conversion rates of 20% vs 10%, meaning the home side is more efficient but the visitors still create chances. Low clean sheet percentages (Wigry 18%, Świt 25%) and a high share of matches over 2.5 goals (65% for the home team and 63% for the away) alongside a league average of 3.34 goals further support a Goal/Goal outcome. Considering seasonal BTTS 65% vs 50%, last 5 matches 60%/60% and Świt’s high goals conceded rate of 2.31 per season, I estimate BTTS probability at 72% and recommend "Yes".

Wigry Suwałki score on average 1.82 goals this season, Świt 1.13, and Świt as the away team concedes on average 2.31 goals; the hosts also have a higher shot conversion 20% versus the opponent's 10%. Looking at xG, Wigry have xG_for 1.31 and xG_against 1.58, Świt xG_for 1.23 and xG_against 1.69; combining seasonal and form values (last 5 matches: Wigry xG_for 1.62, Świt xG_for 1.53) I project approximately 1.63 xG for Wigry and 1.50 for Świt. This implies expected goals of 1.63 for the home side and 1.50 for the away side, totalling ~3.13 goals per match, which is close to the league average of 3.34 and well above the 1.5 threshold. Historically over 1.5 occurred in 76% of Wigry matches and 88% of Świt matches (average ~82%), and over 2.5 in 65% and 63% (average ~64%); accounting for current form (Wigry 12 goals in the last 5, Świt 9) I assess over 1.5 at 86% and over 2.5 at 72%. Therefore I recommend betting Over 1.5 as the strongest signal (ou_pred_line 1.5, over), while Over 2.5 also presents a solid probability (~72%) and Over 3.5 remains risky (~43%).

I back 1/1 (Wigry lead at the break and win) because Wigry have a 4-1 win-loss record in their last 5 matches (80% wins) and were leading at the break in 4 of those 5 games (80%). Seasonally Wigry score an average of 1.82 goals per match and 0.88 by half-time, while Świt averages 1.13 goals per match and only 0.33 by half-time; Świt also concedes an average of 2.31 goals per match and 1.27 by half-time. Wigry have higher xG (1.31 vs. 1.23) and a shot conversion rate of 20% compared to Świt’s 10%, suggesting better conversion of chances. Additionally, Świt were losing at the break in 50% of their last 5 matches, which increases the likelihood that the home side will lead after 45 minutes. Considering Wigry’s advantage in scoring before half-time and Świt’s defensive weaknesses, the scenario of Wigry leading at half-time and maintaining the win to full-time is the strongest.