Wil vs Aarau: match statistics

Aarau is the clear favorite: they sit 2nd in the table versus Wil in 8th and have 22 wins this season compared to the home side’s 8 wins, with Aarau scoring 63 goals versus Wil’s 31. In the last 5 matches the visitors have scored 10 goals and average 2.0 points per match (record 3-1-1), while Wil have 8 goals and 1.2 points per match (record 2-0-3). Aarau’s offensive superiority is supported by the data: goals per match 2.27 vs 1.20 for Wil, average xG 1.70 vs 1.49, 5.73 shots on target per match vs 4.07 and conversion 15% vs 9%. Wil do however have the advantage of a slightly better home defense — conceding 1.53 goals per match on average and recording clean sheets in 40% of matches versus Aarau’s 20% — which increases the chance of a close scoreline. Considering Aarau’s edge in number of wins, goals and attacking efficiency, I estimate the probability of a visitors’ win at 65%, draw 20% and a Wil win 15%.

Statistics indicate a higher likelihood of BTTS - Yes: Aarau has a seasonal BTTS of 80% and averages 2.27 goals per game, while Wil at home scores 1.81 on average and generates xG 2.1 versus Aarau’s average xG conceded of 1.52, suggesting both sides possess offensive threat. Aarau posts xG 1.7 against Wil’s average xG conceded of 1.3, and in the last 5 matches Aarau scored 10 goals (2.0 per game) while Wil conceded 9 goals (1.8), so the visitors are in clear scoring form. Wil averages 7.19 shots on target per game versus Aarau’s 5.73, and with Aarau’s conversion rate at 15% versus Wil’s 10% this increases the probability of the visitors capitalizing on chances. Against BTTS - Yes weighs Wil’s high home clean sheet rate of 56%, which reduces BTTS likelihood, and the fact that the last 5 matches of both teams show BTTS only at 40%. Considering the prevailing offensive signals from Aarau (80% BTTS, 2.27 goals on average) and the aligned xG metrics, I assess BTTS probability at 65% for Yes and 35% for No.

The model based on xG and averages yields 1.81 expected goals for Wil (attacking xG 2.10 vs opponents’ xG Aarau 1.52, average 1.81) and 1.50 for Aarau (attacking xG 1.70 vs opponents’ xG Wil 1.30, average 1.50), totaling approximately 3.31 expected goals. Assuming a Poisson distribution with λ=3.31, the probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5) is about 84%, which aligns with historical rates: Wil has 69% of matches over 1.5 goals, and Aarau 87%. Additionally, Wil averages 7.19 shots on target and 18.88 total shots, Aarau 5.73 and 15.27; Aarau has a higher conversion rate of 15% versus Wil’s 10%, and Aarau has scored 63 goals this season versus Wil’s 31, increasing offensive pressure. Wil concedes on average 0.81 goals per match, but Aarau scores on average 2.27 goals per match, so I expect more than 1.5 goals in the matchup. Based on this, I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest and most likely play (84% vs 16%).

I project X/1 (draw at half-time, Wil win at full-time) as the most likely scenario. A draw at the break is plausible—home teams drew at half in 44% of matches, visitors in 40%—though Aarau have a clear first-half edge: 31 first-half goals versus Wil’s 16 and an average of 1.07 goals before the break compared to Wil’s 0.63. After the break, the case favors Wil due to superior xG and chance creation: Wil xG 2.10 versus Aarau 1.70, and on average 18.88 shots with 7.19 on target per match versus Aarau’s 15.27 shots and 5.73 on target, alongside better defensive numbers season-to-date (conceding 0.81 goals per match versus Aarau’s 1.80 and keeping clean sheets in 56% of matches). Wil also perform better in second halves—scoring 1.19 goals after the break and conceding only 0.44, winning the second half in 56% of matches versus Aarau’s 47%—which supports a turnaround. Therefore the most probable outcome is a Half-Time/Full-Time draw then Wil win; alternatives are 1/1 or X/X, but higher xG and shot volumes favor Wil.