Wil vs Vaduz: match statistics

Vaduz is the clear favorite: they sit 2nd in the table and have won 24 matches this season versus Wil’s 10, and a 72–38 goal difference clearly favors the visitors. Away, Vaduz averages 1.65 goals scored and concedes 1.12, while Wil at home scores 1.18 and allows 1.53 per match, giving the visitors an edge both offensively and defensively. In the last 5 fixtures Vaduz scored 12 goals (2.4 per game) and average 2.0 points per match, while Wil have 7 goals (1.4 per game) and 1.4 points per match, so form also favors the away side. The xG for both teams is similar (Wil 1.56 at home vs Vaduz 1.53 away), but Vaduz converts chances better — 13% conversion vs 9% for Wil and a lower share of games without a goal (18% vs 35%). Additionally the visitors have higher possession (58% away vs 52% for the hosts) and a higher away win rate (53% vs 29%), therefore I back a Vaduz victory.

Statistical evidence supports BTTS - Yes: Wil has a seasonal BTTS rate of 72%, Vaduz 53%, with the league average at 56%. In the last 5 matches Vaduz recorded BTTS in 100% of games, while Wil only in 40%; however Wil averages 2.44 goals per game (Vaduz 1.65) and has higher xG (1.78 vs 1.53). The combined xG is 3.31 (1.78+1.53), above the league average of 3.05, and Wil registers 6.11 shots on target vs 4.71 for Vaduz and has a conversion rate of 16% vs 13%, which increases the likelihood of goals from both sides. Clean sheets are relatively rare (Wil 28%, Vaduz 35%), and in the last 5 matches Wil scored and conceded 7 goals each, while Vaduz scored 12 and conceded 9, further supporting the both teams to score scenario.

Both teams generate plenty of chances: Wil averages 2.44 goals per match (xG 1.78), and Vaduz 1.65 goals (xG 1.53); based on both teams' xG and average xG against, I calculated expected goals of 1.59 for Wil and 1.44 for Vaduz, totaling 3.03 goals. Season shares of matches with over 1.5 goals are 83% for Wil and 76% for Vaduz, so I assess the probability of Over 1.5 at 91%. For the 2.5 line the signal remains strong: Wil has 83% of matches over 2.5, Vaduz 41%, and in the last 5 fixtures Vaduz recorded Over 2.5 in 100% of cases — the expected total of 3.03 supports Over 2.5 (70%). Both teams also have high BTTS rates: Wil 72% and Vaduz 53%, which increases the chances of goals from both sides and supports Over 2.5. Over 3.5 is less certain — season Over 3.5 is 50% for Wil and 29% for Vaduz, and the combined xG 3.03 is below 3.5, so I give Over 3.5 42% and recommend Over 2.5 as the best line.

The most likely scenario is Wil leading at the break and winning at full-time (1/1): Wil led at half-time in 56% of matches this season and won 83% of home games. This is supported by the home side’s offensive advantage – Wil averages 1.44 goals by the break versus Vaduz’s 0.65 conceded in first halves, the home team’s xG is 1.78 against opponents’ 1.53, and 6.11 shots on target versus 4.71, indicating greater pressure already in the opening phase. However, in the last five matches Wil led at the break in only 20% of games, while Vaduz led at the break in 60% of those recent matches, so I do not assign extreme confidence to 1/1 and give it 44%, leaving 23% to the scenario draw at half-time and home win at full-time (X/1) and 12% to draw/draw (X/X). Turnaround scenarios (2/1, 2/X, 2/2) I rate collectively at about 6%, since Wil loses a lead at the break in 6% of season matches and has an average points per home match of 2.61 versus Vaduz’s 1.82, which favors a home full-time victory.