Wil vs Yverdon Sport: match statistics

I back the away win — Yverdon sit 3rd with 18 wins this season versus Wil's 9; goal difference is pronounced: 69 scored by Yverdon against 34 for Wil. The visitors average 2.19 goals away with an average xG of 1.52, while the hosts score 1.25 at home with the same xG 1.52, indicating Yverdon convert chances far more efficiently (shot conversion 17% vs 9%). Yverdon register 5.25 shots on target per away match versus Wil's 4.25, and the hosts fail to register a shot in 31% of home games compared to just 13% for the visitors, which increases the likelihood of an advantage for the away side. Defenses are similar — Wil concede 1.56 at home, Yverdon 1.38 away — but the seasonal difference in goal differential (+13 away for Yverdon vs -5 for Wil) and identical 1.4 points average over the last 5 matches favor the visitors. I therefore assign 15% to the home win, 20% to a draw and 65% to Yverdon.

I predict BTTS - Yes because seasonal indicators point to a high probability of both teams scoring: Wil has BTTS in 53% of matches while Yverdon in 69%, versus a league average of 55%. Yverdon have scored 69 goals this season and feature matches over 2.5 goals in 94% of cases, while keeping only 25% clean sheets, which increases the likelihood they both score and concede. Wil averages 13.41 shots and 4.82 shots on target per match, with a seasonal average of 2.0 goals and xG 1.5 (last 5 matches xG 2.08 and 8 goals scored), so they also create chances. In the last 5 matches Wil averaged 1.6 scored and 1.6 conceded, and Yverdon 2.0 scored and 2.0 conceded, confirming mutual susceptibility to scoring and conceding. Considering 53% vs 69% BTTS, the very high over2.5 for Yverdon (94%) and the low probability of a clean sheet for the away side (25%), I recommend a 75% allocation to YES and 25% to NO.

Seasonal indicators show a strong tendency toward matches with at least 2 goals: Over 1.5 landed in 76% of Wil’s games and 94% of Yverdon’s games (average 85%). Both teams’ xG are 1.50 (Wil) and 1.52 (Yverdon), with xG against 1.43 (Wil) and 1.37 (Yverdon), translating to expected goals of 1.44 for Wil and 1.48 for Yverdon (total 2.92). Shot metrics confirm offensive pressure: Wil averages 13.41 shots with 4.82 on target, Yverdon 12.69 with 5.25 on target, with conversion rates of 15% and 17%. The percentage of matches in which both teams scored is 53% (Wil) and 69% (Yverdon), further increasing the probability of a multi-goal game. Based on these data, the strongest and most reliable signal is Over 1.5.

I forecast a draw at half-time, because Wil drew at the break in 59% of their home matches while Yverdon drew at the break in 25% of their outings — the match average is therefore about 42% for a half-time draw. Nevertheless, the final advantage lies with Wil: the hosts win 59% of their matches this season versus 50% for the visitors, which favors the home side. Additionally, Wil perform better after the break — they average 1.71 points in second halves and win those halves 47% of the time, compared to 1.56 points and 38% for Yverdon, which increases the chance of a turnaround after half-time. Since the xG of both teams is similar (1.50 for Wil versus 1.52 for Yverdon), the contest should be even in chance creation, further supporting a draw at half-time and a decision in the second half. Therefore I select X/1 (draw at half-time, Wil to win) as the most likely scenario and assign it the highest probability at 19%, while also accounting for approximately a 24% chance of Wil leading at the break and 34% for Yverdon leading at the break.