Willem II vs NEC: match statistics

Willem II have a clearly better recent run of form: they have won 3 of their last 5 matches and averaged 1.4 goals per game, while NEC have recorded just 1 victory, scoring 5 goals in total. Both teams have conceded 7 goals in their last five appearances, so the hosts’ defense does not offer complete security, but Willem II’s attack shows greater potential. NEC have lost 3 of their last 5 matches and averaged 0.8 points per game during this period, compared with 1.8 points for Willem II. After one league round, the hosts suffered a 1:4 defeat and the visitors lost 1:2, further highlighting the need for defensive improvement on both sides. Willem II’s superior form and greater attacking efficiency favor a narrow victory, although the possibility of a draw remains significant.

The BTTS signal is positive, as Willem II recorded both teams scoring in 60% of their last 5 matches, while NEC did so in as many as 80%. Both teams conceded an average of 1.4 goals per match during this period, increasing the chances of each side allowing the opposition to create a successful scoring opportunity. NEC have recently created chances worth an average of 2.07 xG, while Willem II allowed opponents 2.00 xG, so the visitors should have a clear foundation for scoring. The hosts averaged 1.4 goals in their last five appearances, while NEC conceded 1.4, making a Willem II goal likely as well. Although the league average for BTTS is only 44%, the current data for both teams points to a more open scenario than is typical in the competition.

In their last five matches, Willem II averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, while NEC scored 1.0 goal and conceded 1.4. Both teams also have a high percentage of matches featuring at least three goals: 60% for the home side and as much as 80% for NEC. Particularly significant is NEC’s xG of 2.07 over their last five appearances, while Willem II allowed opponents an average of 2.00 xG. The hosts are also capable of creating chances, as indicated by 27 shots and 2.79 xG in the available home sample, although their conversion rate was only 4%. The projected total of 2.80 goals provides a clear edge over 1.5 goals, as the data on both teams’ chance creation and defensive performances limits the risk of a very tight match.

Willem II are in clearly better current form: they have won 3 of their last 5 matches and scored an average of 1.4 goals, while NEC have won just 1 of their 5 games and conceded an average of 1.4 goals. The hosts held a lead at the break in 40% of their last five appearances, while NEC were trailing at half-time in 40% of their matches over the same period. Willem II’s attack creates plenty of chances, as reflected by an xG of 2.79 and 27 shots recorded in their home match so far, despite a conversion rate of just 4%. The hosts also have the better second-half record across their last five matches, scoring an average of 0.6 goals after the break compared with NEC’s 0.4. Therefore, the most likely outcome remains a Willem II lead at half-time that they go on to hold until the final whistle — HT/FT 1/1.