Wisła Kraków II vs Jarosław: match statistics

Jarosław hold a slight edge thanks to their more effective attack: they have scored 27 goals this season compared with Wisła Kraków II’s 13, and netted 15 times in their last five matches, while the hosts scored 4. Away from home, the visitors average 1.75 goals and generate 1.77 xG, whereas Wisła average 1.17 goals and 1.33 xG at home. Jarosław’s weaker defensive record works in the hosts’ favor: they concede an average of 2.25 goals away from home and have yet to keep a clean sheet. However, Wisła have failed to win any of their last five matches and have conceded 10 goals in that run, giving the visitors a better chance of making their attacking advantage count. I’m backing a Jarosław win, although their two victories in their last five matches and poor away form suggest this will be a closely contested encounter.

BTTS has occurred in 71% of Wisła Kraków II’s matches and 100% of Jarosław’s, compared with a league average of 60%. The hosts score an average of 2.86 goals per season, while the visitors concede 2.25, strongly supporting the prospect of a Wisła goal. Jarosław average 1.75 goals scored, while Wisła concede 1.57; the visitors’ xG of 1.77 also indicates they can create chances. A note of caution comes from Wisła’s recent scoring form: they have averaged 0.8 goals over their last 5 matches, with BTTS landing in 40% of those games. However, over the same period, Jarosław conceded 2.4 goals per match and BTTS landed in 100% of their games. Therefore, the case for both teams to score is considerably stronger than the possibility of at least one side failing to score.

The strongest signal is for Over 1.5 goals: this line has been surpassed in 100% of both teams’ matches to date, while the league average stands at 2.96 goals per game. Wisła averages 2.86 goals scored, but has managed just 0.8 per game over its last five matches, so its attacking output should be projected more cautiously. Jarosław has averaged 3.0 goals scored across its last five games, while Wisła has conceded 2.0 per game over that span; moreover, the visitors concede an average of 2.25 goals per game this season. The data also support a higher line, with Over 2.5 goals landing in 86% of Wisła’s matches and 100% of Jarosław’s, but the hosts’ recent drop in scoring efficiency increases the risk. With a projected total of 3.7 goals, Over 1.5 remains the most likely pick.

A draw at half-time followed by a Jarosław win is the most likely outcome, although the season-long results favor Wisła II: the hosts have won 57% of their matches, compared with 25% for the visitors. However, in their last five matches Wisła II have scored just 0.8 goals per game and have not won once, while Jarosław have averaged 3.0 goals and won twice. A draw at the break is supported by Jarosław having been level at half-time in two of their last five matches and having led at the break only once; Wisła II have averaged just 0.2 first-half goals. The visitors could gain the upper hand after the interval: in their last five matches they have averaged 1.8 second-half goals, while the hosts have conceded 1.4. This makes the X/2 scenario slightly more likely than the visitors taking the lead at the break, although their strong scoring form also leaves that outcome possible.