Wisła Kraków II vs Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów: match statistics

Wisła Kraków II holds a clear advantage in chance creation at home: on average 13.19 shots per game and 5.5 on-target attempts versus 8.17 shots and 3.0 on-target away for Pogoń-Sokół, with similar conversion rates (16% vs 17%). The hosts average 2.06 goals per home game, while the visitors record 1.69 goals away; the hosts’ xG is 1.64 versus the visitors’ 1.20, confirming Wisła’s offensive superiority. Defensively Wisła concedes 1.44 goals at home, Pogoń concedes 1.50 away, with the hosts keeping clean sheets in 44% of matches versus 19% for the visitors and only 6% of home matches without scoring (vs 19% for visitors). Forms are comparable: Wisła in the last 5 matches has 2 wins and 3 losses (avg 1.2 points per game), Pogoń in the last 5 has 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses (avg 1.4 points), so a minimal form edge lies with the visitors. Considering the greater volume of chances, higher xG (1.64 vs 1.20) and superior home clean sheet rate, I forecast a home win.

Both teams have seasonal BTTS rates of 56% (Wisła II) and 63% (Pogoń-Sokół), versus a league BTTS average of 59%, which seasonally favors a both-teams-to-score scenario. In the last 5 matches Wisła II registered BTTS in 80% of games and the visitors in 60%; both sides score on average 1.88 (Wisła II) and 1.69 (Pogoń) goals while conceding 1.06 and 1.50 respectively, increasing the probability of goal exchange. Home xG is 1.67 versus xG conceded 1.69, and in the last 5 matches the hosts have xG_for 1.84 and xG_against 0.86, while the visitors have xG_for 1.20 and xG_against 1.09 (last 5: 1.57 and 1.25), showing both teams create genuine scoring opportunities. Additionally, the combined average goals (1.88+1.69=3.57) exceed the league average 3.1, and the percentage of games over 2.5 goals is 63% and 69% respectively, further supporting BTTS - Yes. Although Wisła II has 44% clean sheets at home, the lower clean sheet rate of the visitors (19%) and the hosts’ advantage in shots on target (6.0 vs 3.0) make the "Yes" outcome stronger.

I project a total of approximately 3.00 goals: Wisła Kraków II ~1.70 and Pogoń-Sokół ~1.30, totaling 3.00. The home side scores on average 1.88 goals per match with xG 1.67, while the visitors concede 1.50 goals on average with xG against 1.09, which supports Wisła II’s offensive profile and my ~1.70 goal projection for the hosts. Over/Under metrics confirm a high tempo: season-to-date Over 2.5 occurred in 63% of the home team’s matches and 69% of the visitors’ matches, and in the last 5 matches for both teams Over 2.5 appeared in 80% of cases; the league average is 3.1 goals per match. Additionally, BTTS is 56% for the home team and 63% for the visitors (last 5 matches: 80% and 60%), increasing the likelihood of at least two goals. Based on this, the strongest signal is Over 2.5 (I pick Over 2.5) with an estimated probability of 73%, while Over 1.5 is almost certain (90%), and Over 3.5 remains marginal (seasonally 50%/44% for home/away, hence ~45%).

Wisła Kraków II led at half-time in 8 matches (57% of games) and scores an average of 1.00 goal in the first half, while Pogoń‑Sokół had only 3 half-time leads (27%) and 0.73 HT goals, which gives a clear advantage to the home side in the first half. The hosts also have higher xG (1.67 vs 1.20), more shots on target (6.0 vs 3.0) and 19 goals at the break this season versus 15 for the visitors, increasing the likelihood of maintaining or extending a lead. Season-wide Wisła II win 50% of matches, draw 38% and lose about 13%, and their percentage of clean HT halves is 71%, suggesting resilience at the break and conversion of strong first halves into favorable results. The visitors, however, are active after the break (over05_2hg_percentage_away 100% and wins_2hg_percentage_away 45%), so a draw or a turnaround is possible; nonetheless the strongest signal from the data favors the hosts. For these reasons I pick 1/1 (home lead at the break and home win), while assigning a moderate probability to draws and a lower chance of a turnaround.