Wisła Kraków II vs Świdniczanka Świdnik: match statistics

Wisła Kraków II holds a clear statistical advantage: at home they average 2.08 goals scored and concede 1.46 per match, while Świdniczanka away scores only 1.15 and concedes 2.85. In the last 5 matches Wisła has scored 6 and conceded 4 (avg 1.2/0.8) and collected 1.4 points per match, whereas the visitors scored 3 and conceded 13, have no wins and just 0.2 points per match. In chance creation the hosts register 13.38 shots and 5.62 on target per home game with an average xG of 1.68 and a conversion rate of 16%, while Świdniczanka on the road averages 10 shots, 4 on target, xG 1.26 and a 9% conversion, indicating better chance quality and finishing from Wisła. Defensively the advantage is also with the hosts: Wisła has 46% clean sheets at home and a home goal difference of +8, whereas Świdniczanka has 0% clean sheets away, a negative goal difference of -22 and a 69% loss rate on the road. Based on this I tip the home win; I estimate approximate probabilities of 72% for Wisła, 16% for a draw and 12% for an away win.

Statistical analysis supports BTTS - Yes: both teams have a season BTTS rate of 77%. Both sides have 0% clean sheets (0.0 and 0.0) and concede on average 1.92 (Wisła II) and 2.85 (Świdniczanka) goals per match, increasing the likelihood of goals from both teams. Świdniczanka creates more chances — on average 10.0 shots and 4.0 shots on target with xG 1.26 — versus Wisła II (5.33 shots, 0.89 on target, xG 1.07), and the hosts have still scored 50 goals this season, so both sides have goal-scoring potential. Additionally, 62% of Wisła’s matches and 69% of Świdniczanka’s matches finish as Over 2.5 and BTTS, while the league average BTTS is 56%; the only weakening signal is Wisła’s last 5 matches with BTTS at 40%. Considering dominant season indicators (77% BTTS, 0% clean sheets, high goals conceded), I assign an 80% probability to Yes and 20% to No and recommend a BTTS = Yes bet.

The combined expected xG is around 2.82 goals: 1.69 xG for Wisła II versus 1.13 xG for Świdniczanka, which provides a solid basis for Over 1.5 goals. Seasonally Over 1.5 has occurred in 85% of Wisła II’s matches and 92% of Świdniczanka’s matches, and both teams scored in 77% of meetings, further strengthening the Over 1.5 signal; therefore I rate the chance of Over 1.5 at 88%. The distribution model around the mean 2.82 indicates roughly a 54% probability for Over 2.5, but historical Over 2.5 rates are 62% for the home side and 85% for the away side, so I adjust the Over 2.5 probability to about 60%. The chance for Over 3.5 is moderate: the model gives about 31%, seasonally it is 23% (home) versus 62% (away), so I set the probability for Over 3.5 at 35%. The strongest signal is the Over 1.5 line — total expected goals 2.82, strong seasonal Over 1.5 percentages (85%/92%) and recent form over the last 5 matches (Wisła II: 6 scored and 4 conceded; Świdniczanka: 3 scored and 13 conceded) all support this selection.

Analysis of the last 5 matches shows that Wisła II led at the break in 50% of cases and averaged 1.0 goals before half-time, while Świdniczanka had 0% leads and averaged 0.25 goals by the break. In the second half the home side scores on average 0.88 goals and concedes 0.5, whereas the visitors score 0.67 and concede 1.56; hosts win second halves in 63% of cases versus 22% for the visitors, which supports maintaining a lead by Wisła. Although Świdniczanka registers more shots on target (4.0 vs 0.89), their efficiency is lower (9% conversion versus 17% for the hosts), so the advantage in attempts does not clearly translate into a turnaround. Wisła II is also in better form over the last 5 matches (1.4 points on average versus 0.2 for the visitors) and has a higher average of goals by half-time in that period (1.0 vs 0.25); therefore the scenario of the home side leading at half-time and winning the match is the most likely and was assigned a 36% probability.