Wisła Kraków vs Jagiellonia Białystok: match statistics

Jagiellonia Białystok are showing clearly better current form: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches and scored 14 goals in that run, while Wisła Kraków have managed just 1 victory and scored 7 goals. The visitors are highly effective away from home, averaging 2.67 goals from 5.67 shots on target per match, with a 19% shooting conversion rate; Wisła average 2 goals at home. However, the hosts have a perfect record of 3 home wins and concede just 0.67 goals per game on their own ground, significantly increasing their chances of making this a closely contested fixture. Wisła’s main concern is their weaker recent trend, having conceded 7 goals in five matches, while Jagiellonia create slightly better-quality chances away from home, with an average xG of 1.67 compared with Wisła’s 1.63 at home. The visitors’ superior attacking form and current run give them a slight edge to win, although Wisła’s solid home record in Kraków limits the extent to which Jagiellonia should be favoured.

The “Yes” pick is supported by the very high current attacking activity of both teams: in their last 5 matches, BTTS landed in 80% of Wisła’s and Jagiellonia’s games. Jagiellonia averages 2.67 goals per match, while Wisła concedes an average of 1.0 goal, alongside the hosts’ high xG of 1.63 compared with the 1.93 xG allowed by the visitors. The away side have failed to keep a clean sheet in every match this season, and both teams scored in each of those games, while Wisła have averaged 1.4 goals in their last five matches. Jagiellonia are also highly efficient, converting 19% of their shots into goals, and their average of 5.67 shots on target suggests a strong likelihood of finding the net in Kraków as well. Although Wisła have failed to score in 33% of their matches, the attacking numbers of both sides and the visitors’ defensive weakness point more clearly towards a Goal/Goal scenario.

Jagiellonia average 2.67 goals away from home, while Wisła concede 1.00 goal at home, giving the visitors a very strong foundation for scoring at least once. The hosts create chances worth an average of 1.63 xG, while Jagiellonia’s defense allows opponents 1.93 xG, making a Wisła goal a realistic scenario as well. In their last five matches, both teams recorded games in which both sides scored in 80% of cases, while Jagiellonia exceeded the 2.5-goal line in each of those five appearances. The average total number of goals across the last five matches is 2.8 for Wisła and as high as 4.0 for Jagiellonia, clearly above the league average of 2.89. The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals, as both teams had at least 2 goals in 67% and 100% of their matches this season, while Jagiellonia’s attacking profile limits the risk of a low-scoring game.

Jagiellonia are in clearly superior current form: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches, compared with just 1 win for Wisła, while their average points totals stand at 2.4 and 1.0, respectively. The visitors score an average of 2.67 goals per match, compared with Wisła’s 1.00, and have maintained a very strong average of 2.8 goals across their last five appearances. Jagiellonia’s advantage is already evident before half-time: they held a lead at the break in 60% of their recent matches, scored an average of 1.6 goals, and have not once gone into half-time trailing, compared with Wisła’s 0.6 goals. After the break, the hosts continue to struggle defensively, conceding an average of 1.0 goal, while the visitors score an average of 1.33 goals in this period. Although Wisła kept a clean sheet at half-time in 100% of their three available home matches, the visitors’ greater attacking quality, supported by 5.67 shots on target per match compared with the hosts’ 3.67, most strongly backs the scenario of a Jagiellonia lead and victory, i.e. the HT/FT 2/2 outcome.