Wisłoka Dębica vs Chełmianka Chełm: match statistics

Chełmianka Chełm is the clear favorite: they have 20 wins this season versus Wisłoka’s 11 and have scored 63 goals compared to the home side’s 33. In the last 5 matches the visitors have scored 11 goals and remained unbeaten (3 wins, 2 draws), yielding an average of 2.2 points per game, while Wisłoka over the same period has 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses, 6 goals for and 10 against and only 0.8 points per game. The difference in finishing efficiency is decisive: Chełmianka away converts shots at roughly 21% and averages 1.69 goals per game, whereas Wisłoka at home converts 8% and averages 0.87 goals. Although the hosts have a higher home xG (1.65 vs 1.4 away xG for the visitors), this translates into poor output (0.87 goals from 1.65 xG) and a high share of goalless matches (40%), while the visitors fail to score in only 19% of games. Considering the superior points form (2.2 vs 0.8), higher conversion rate (21% vs 8%) and lower share of matches without a goal (19% vs 40%), I predict an away win.

I back BTTS - Yes: seasonally Wisłoka has BTTS in 59% of home matches, Chełmianka has 50% BTTS away, and the league BTTS average is 59%, giving a strong seasonal signal for both teams to score. Wisłoka averages 2.12 goals at home with xG of 2.18 and 8.5 shots on target per game, while Chełmianka averages 1.69 goals on the road, so both sides possess genuine attacking potential. Additionally, Wisłoka fail to score in only 6% of matches (i.e. score in 94% of cases), and Chełmianka fail to score in 19% of matches (score in 81% of cases), which supports the both-teams-to-score scenario. Counterpoints: in the last 5 matches BTTS occurred in only 40% of cases and Wisłoka have recently conceded 2.0 goals per game on average, but Chełmianka have scored 2.2 goals on average in their last 5, so short-term goals from both sides are likely. Considering seasonal 59%/50% rates and the league benchmark of 59%, the xG advantage (Wisłoka 2.18 vs Chełmianka 1.40) and current form, I assess BTTS probability at about 62% vs 38% for No BTTS, therefore I recommend 'yes'.

Statistics indicate a match with at least two goals: Wisłoka at home averages 2.12 goals and has xG 2.18 with 19 shots (8.5 on target), while Chełmianka records 1.69 goals and xG 1.40 with 9.71 shots (4.0 on target). Season percentages for over 1.5 goals are 71% for Wisłoka and 81% for Chełmianka (76% on average), and a simple xG model yields expected 1.61 goals for Wisłoka and 1.22 for Chełmianka, total 2.83; a Poisson distribution at this total estimates about 77% probability of at least 2 goals. For the 2.5 line, season values are 47% and 44% (45% average), while the model gives ~54% chance of 3+ goals, so the signal for Over 2.5 is moderate. The 3.5 line has season values 24% and 31% and a model estimate of ~32%, so Over 3.5 is unlikely and Under 3.5 is safer. The strongest market pick remains Over 1.5 goals given the 71%/81% historical rates, predicted 2.83 goals and roughly 77% probability.

The key signal is Wisłoka's dominance at the break: the hosts led at half-time in 9 of their matches so far (64%), scoring an average of 1.14 goals by half-time while conceding just 0.14. Over the season Wisłoka wins 76% of matches, has an xG of 2.18 versus Chełmianka's 1.40, averages 19 shots compared to the opponents' 9.71 and records 8.5 shots on target versus 4.0 — a clear offensive advantage supporting maintenance of a lead at the break. Although both teams often score after half-time (seasonal BTTS: home 59%, away 50%), the visitors lead at the break in only 7% of cases and concede on average 0.62 goals before half-time, which limits their turnaround potential. On this basis the most likely scenario is Wisłoka leading at half-time and the hosts winning at full-time (1/1 — 54%), with smaller chances for a draw at half-time followed by a home win (X/1 ~18%) or a draw-draw (~10%).