Wisłoka Dębica vs Sparta KW: match statistics

Wisłoka Dębica is the clear favorite in this match: over the last 5 games they average 1.6 points (record 2-2-1), scoring 4 and conceding 4, while Sparta has lost all 5 recent matches and conceded 21 goals (4.2 per game). At home Wisłoka concedes only 0.85 goals per match and keeps 54% clean sheets, whereas Sparta concedes 3.43 goals away on average and has just 7% clean sheets, giving the hosts a pronounced defensive edge. In attack the hosts create more opportunities: at home they have average xG 1.36 with 10.71 shots and 3.29 on target, and 0.62 goals scored per match, while Sparta away posts xG 0.84 with 6.33 shots, 2 on target and 0.64 goals per match. Sparta’s season record is only 3 wins, 1 draw and 25 losses with a goal record of 26–95 (goal difference -69) and an away goal difference of -39; 86% of away matches lost indicates high vulnerability on the road. Considering Wisłoka’s defensive advantage (0.85 vs 3.43 goals conceded per match), higher home xG (1.36 vs 0.84) and better form (1.6 pts vs 0 pts over the last 5), I predict a home win.

I back BTTS - Yes with a 70% probability versus 30% No Goal. The strongest argument for Yes is Sparta’s catastrophic defense: 95 goals conceded this season (avg 3.43 per match) and as many as 21 conceded in the last 5 matches (4.2 per match). Wisłoka has the tools to exploit this — they score 1.13 goals per match season-to-date, average 4.17 shots on target and have a season xG of 1.09 (last 5 xG 1.28) with a 26% conversion rate, increasing the likelihood of them scoring. Both teams rarely keep a clean sheet (7% of matches each), the league features 59% BTTS games and an average of 3.09 goals per match, which further favors both teams scoring. Although season BTTS rates are 47% for Wisłoka and 36% for Sparta, Sparta’s last 5 matches show 80% BTTS and 5 losses, plus the huge volume of goals conceded, which pushes for a decisive Yes signal.

Wisłoka scores on average 1.13 goals per match with xG 1.09, while Sparta averages 0.64 goals with xG 0.84. Both teams concede heavily: Wisłoka 3.13 and Sparta 3.43 goals per game, clean sheets in only 7% of Wisłoka’s matches, and Sparta has conceded 21 goals in the last 5 matches (4.2 per game). Season-to-date percentages for matches over 1.5 goals are 93% for Wisłoka and 86% for Sparta; over 2.5 occurs in 73% and 57% of matches respectively. Combined expected goals from xG are 1.57 for Wisłoka and 1.39 for Sparta, totaling 2.96, which gives a strong signal for Over 1.5 and a moderate signal for Over 2.5. Based on this, I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest bet (estimate 88%), with Over 2.5 probability around 62% and noticeably less support for Over 3.5 (~35%).

The home side were level at half-time in 4 of their last 5 matches (80%), while the away team lost all 5 most recent fixtures (100% defeats), indicating a high probability of a draw at the break. Both teams have a low first-half goals average — 0.22 goals per team — so the first half should be tight on goals and favor a draw. In the second half Wisłoka holds the advantage: xG 1.09 versus Sparta’s 0.84, more shots on target (4.17 vs 2.0) and higher conversion (26% vs 8%), and in their last 5 matches the hosts have averaged 2.2 points in the second half and won it 60% of the time. Seasonally Wisłoka scores more goals per match (1.13 vs 0.64) and has a slightly better points per game return (0.4 vs 0.29), so the most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a home win at full-time (X/1). Other outcomes, such as an overall draw (18%) or the hosts leading at half-time (10%), are possible but less likely given the low number of goals before the break and Wisłoka’s second-half superiority.