Woking vs Altrincham: match statistics

Woking sit only 23rd in the table, but they show more convincing attacking potential at home, averaging 1.33 goals with an xG of 1.45, while Altrincham manage just 0.67 goals and an xG of 0.93 away from home. The hosts also take twice as many shots per match, 12 compared with 6, and get more efforts on target, 3.67 compared with the visitors’ 2. Altrincham do arrive on the back of three consecutive wins and have collected 9 points from their last five matches, whereas Woking have taken 4 points over the same period. The visitors’ key weakness is their away form: they have lost 67% of such matches, kept no clean sheets and failed to score in 67% of their away appearances. Woking also concede an average of 2 goals at home, so this could be a closely contested match, but the hosts’ edge in chance creation makes a home win the marginally preferred outcome.

The strongest argument for BTTS - No is Altrincham’s limited attacking potential away from home: the team scores an average of only 0.67 goals, records an xG of 0.93, and manages just 2.0 shots on target per match. The visitors have failed to score in 67% of their away matches, while BTTS has landed in only 33% of their games, clearly below the league average of 65%. Woking have yet to keep a clean sheet and concede an average of 1.67 goals at home, but their recent attacking form is also unconvincing, as they have scored just 0.8 goals per game across their last five matches. The hosts post stronger attacking numbers, averaging 1.67 goals, 1.41 xG, and 4.67 shots on target, making the most likely scenario a home goal combined with at least one team failing to score. The last five matches produce BTTS rates of 40% for Woking and 60% for Altrincham, but the visitors’ poor away finishing shifts the prediction towards BTTS - No.

The 2.37-goal projection is based on the combination of the hosts producing an average of 1.41 xG against an Altrincham defense allowing 1.52 xG, along with the visitors’ weaker attacking potential, reflected in their average xG of 0.93. Woking have scored just 0.8 goals per match across their last five fixtures, while Altrincham have conceded 1.0 goal during that period, limiting the hosts’ scoring ceiling. Although the visitors have averaged 1.2 goals in their last five matches, they score just 0.67 goals per away game and have failed to score in 67% of those fixtures. Over 3.5 goals has landed in only 33% of Woking’s home matches and in none of Altrincham’s away matches, making Under 3.5 the clearest value. This line is also safer than Under 2.5, as the league averages 3.06 goals and neither team has kept a clean sheet yet.

A draw at half-time followed by an Altrincham win is the most likely outcome, as both teams were level after 45 minutes in 60% of their last five matches. Woking failed to score before the break in this period, while Altrincham averaged 0.6 goals, limiting the hosts’ chances of taking an early lead. After half-time, however, the visitors have been more consistent: in their last five matches, they scored an average of 0.6 goals and conceded 0.6, whereas Woking conceded an average of 1.0 goal. Current form also favors the away side, who have won 3 of their last 5 matches and averaged 1.8 points, compared with just 1 win and 0.8 points for Woking. The hosts have better season-long home statistics, but their recent failure to score before the break and weaker performances late in matches support the X/2 scenario.