Woking vs Kidderminster Harriers: match statistics

Kidderminster Harriers sit 4th, while Woking are only 19th, and the visitors have lost none of their last 5 matches, winning 3 and drawing 2. During this run, Kidderminster scored 11 goals and conceded just 4, compared with Woking’s 9 goals scored and 6 conceded. At home, the hosts are dangerous in attack, averaging 2.25 goals with an xG of 1.61 and 5.5 shots on target per match, but they have failed to keep a clean sheet in any home fixture. The visitors also average 2.33 goals away from home, while their 37% shooting conversion rate is clearly superior to Woking’s 18%, which could prove decisive despite the hosts creating higher-quality chances. Both defenses concede more than 1.6 goals per match on home and away terms, so the most likely outcome is an open game ending in a narrow victory for Kidderminster.

BTTS stands at 67% for Kidderminster and 50% for Woking, compared with a league average of 65%, indicating a slightly favorable Goal/Goal scenario. Over their last five matches, this figure rose to 60% for Woking and as high as 80% for Kidderminster, while the teams averaged 1.8 and 2.2 goals respectively. During this period, Woking created chances worth 1.58 xG and conceded 1.2 goals per match, whereas Kidderminster recorded 1.31 xG and allowed opponents 1.41 xG. The hosts kept a clean sheet in 50% of their matches this season, but the visitors have not recorded a single such game, and their average of 1.67 goals conceded away from home strongly supports a Woking goal. Kidderminster average 2.33 goals scored away from home, so despite Woking's solid defense, the most likely outcome remains BTTS - Yes.

Woking create chances worth an average of 1.41 xG at home, while Kidderminster allow opponents as much as 1.98 xG away from home, which clearly supports at least one goal for the hosts. The visitors score an average of 2.33 goals away from home, although Woking’s solid defense concedes just 0.50 goals at home and keeps a clean sheet in 50% of matches, so their projection is capped at 1.25 goals. In their last five matches, both teams scored 1.8 and 2.2 goals per game respectively, while the average xG stood at 1.58 for Woking and 1.31 for Kidderminster. The Over 1.5 goals line landed in 75% of Woking’s home matches and in all of Kidderminster’s away matches, making it the strongest over signal. The higher Over 2.5 line also has supporting arguments, but Woking’s 0% rate of home matches with at least three goals calls for greater caution.

Woking have strong arguments for a better start: at home, they led at the break in 2 of their 4 matches, scoring an average of 0.75 goals before half-time and conceding just 0.25. Away from home, Kidderminster went into half-time trailing in as many as 2 of their 3 matches, conceding an average of 1.67 goals in the first 45 minutes. After the interval, however, the visitors’ advantage becomes very significant, as they scored an average of 2.0 second-half goals away from home without conceding a single goal in that period. Woking scored just 0.5 goals after half-time at home, while their last five matches produced averages of 1.2 goals scored and 0.6 conceded in the second half. Therefore, the scenario in which the home side leads at the break before the more effective visitors complete a turnaround after half-time has the strongest justification.