Worthing vs AFC Hornchurch: match statistics

AFC Hornchurch sit 4th, while Worthing are 16th, and the visitors have won 3 of their last 5 matches, compared with just 1 win for the hosts over the same period. Away from home, Hornchurch average 2.00 goals per match and win 67% of their games, while their 19% shot conversion rate is clearly superior to Worthing’s 10%. However, the hosts could cause problems for the visitors, as they average 1.60 xG at home, while Hornchurch concede 2.08 xG away from home and allow 2.33 goals per match. Worthing also have defensive issues, conceding an average of 1.67 goals at home and 10 in their last 5 matches. The visitors’ superior recent form and greater efficiency in front of goal point slightly towards an away win, although the open nature of both defenses increases the likelihood of goals at both ends.

The signal for both sides to score is reinforced by their current form: Worthing recorded BTTS in 80% of their last 5 matches, while AFC Hornchurch did so in 60%, conceding an average of 2.0 and 1.6 goals respectively. Hornchurch score an average of 2.00 goals, while Worthing conceded 2.00 goals in their last five matches, which clearly increases the visitors’ chances of finding the net. The hosts create an average of 1.51 xG, whereas the Hornchurch defense allows as much as 2.08 xG and have kept a clean sheet in none of their matches this season. Worthing do have a 67% clean-sheet rate in the season data, but their opponents’ attack is effective, with a 19% shot conversion rate and an average of 1.4 goals in their last five matches. The high league average of 3.06 goals and a 65% BTTS rate further support a scenario in which both teams score.

The 2.90-goal projection is primarily driven by Hornchurch’s very weak away defense, with the team conceding an average of 2.33 goals and posting 2.08 xG against. Worthing should create chances, as its average home xG stands at 1.51, but the hosts’ own defense has been clearly more stable so far, conceding just 0.33 goals per match and keeping a clean sheet in 67% of games. The last five matches for both teams have been more open: Worthing conceded an average of 2.0 goals, while Hornchurch conceded 1.6, supporting a scenario with at least two goals. At the same time, the 3.5 line remains high, as Worthing has not recorded a single home match with four goals so far, while its second-half average is only 0.33 goals. Under 3.5 therefore has the edge: the data points to a scoreline in the region of 2–3 goals, although the risk is elevated by the fact that Hornchurch went Over 2.5 goals in 100% of its away matches.

The strongest signal points to Worthing having the advantage before half-time: in their last 5 matches, the hosts were leading at the break in 100% of games, scoring an average of 1.0 goals and conceding none. Over the same period, AFC Hornchurch had not led after the first half on any occasion, and went into the break trailing in 60% of matches; they scored just 0.2 goals while conceding 0.8. After the break, the pattern clearly reverses, as Worthing conceded an average of 2.0 goals in the second half across their last 5 fixtures and lost the second half in 80% of cases, while Hornchurch won the second half in 60% of matches and scored 1.2 goals per game during that period. The visitors are also in better current late-game form, with 60% wins in their last 5 matches compared with Worthing’s 20%, making a HT/FT scenario of the hosts leading at half-time followed by a Hornchurch turnaround by full-time the most likely outcome.